First round opponent

[AnthonyG]

It is still up in the air as to who our first round opponent may end up being.

Is NSH the team we want to see for the first round? Or is it either VGK or LAK?

I know fans would like Nashville just based on our record against them and the style they play. VGK is going to be getting healthy and is going to be a tough team for anyone to beat. LAK on the other hand plays a very stingy 1-3-1 style of forecheck and are defensively quite hard to expose. Or are they?

Lets look at our records and some advanced analytics that may lead to the truer story of who we actually want.

 

I'll start with Nashville. 

 

vs NSH

(3-0-0)

5v5

GF 9   

GA 6

xGF 5.64

xGA 6.18

SCF 68

SCA 71

HDCF 23

HDCA 28

HDGF 6

HDGA 2

CORSI 49.82%

SV% .897

 

All Situations

GF 13

GA 6

xGF 9.92

xGA 7.82

SCF 85

SCA 83

HDCF 33

HDCA 34

HDGF 8

HDGA 2

CORSI 49.85%

SV% .920

 

Here are the heat maps in all situations vs NSH

 

 

Sure we are 3-0-0 against NSH, but the games are much closer than what the score and the record says. It's pretty damn even. 

 

vs VGK

(2-2-0)

5v5

GF 7

GA 11

xGF 7.18

xGA 6.75

SCF 76

SCA 76

HDCF 33

HDCA 25

HDGF 4

HDGA 6

CORSI 49.19%

SV% .912

 

All Situations

GF 11

GA 14

xGF 11.57

xGA 9.48

SCF 96

SCA 96

HDCF 45

HDCA 35

HDGF 5

HDGA 7

CORSI 49.78%

SV% .880

 

VGK Heat maps

 

 

 

Against VGK we actually get slightly more opportunities and we deserved to score more goals. It would appear we have a slight upper hand on VGK and with Demko and Lindholm returning, possession and SV% is just just going to add to our upper hand. No doubt VGK is good, but I feel we are deeper and more skilled and better structured.

 

Okay now for the  Lame ASS Kings. The record really doesn't favor us at all. BUT... A deeper dive into the stats and you'll see that no matter who we play, we have a very good chance of winning and especially versus LAK.

 

vs LAK

(1-3-0)

5v5

GF 4

GA 9

xGF 8.41

xGA 5.55

SCF 91

SCA 55

HDCF 48

HDCA 23

HDGF 4

HDGA 5

CORSI 59.55%

SV% .888

 

All Situations

GF 8

GA 15

xGF 12.36

xGA 7.17

SCF 116

SCA 65

HDCF 62

HDCA 28

HDGF 5

HDGA 7

CORSI 61.65%

SV% .837

 

LAK Heat maps 

\

 

 

 

We absolutely dominate possession and get the LARGE majority of high danger chances and scoring chances period. LAK is not nearly as stingy as people think, we have exposed them countless times, pretty much double in scoring chances and definitely double in high danger chances. The difference has been LAK's goaltending, our season has been pretty strong all year long in terms of goaltending, so I dont see LAK getting the better of us in net in a best of 7 when the chances we get are a staggering 2x1 advantage with 60% possession. 
 

Anyways I was really bored and thought I'd do a little research. Haven't really been on the forums too much.

 

LAK is my vote. Either way we are taking it this year.

 

vs Conference 12-6-4

vs East 21-7-4

 

 

 

Edited April 10 by AnthonyG

[Déjà Vu]

If its the kings we are soo &^%&^%&% otherwise anyone else we have a chance

[AnthonyG]

4 minutes ago, Déjà Vu said:

If its the kings we are soo &^%&^%&% otherwise anyone else we have a chance

We dominate possession and chances and its not even remotely close. Its hard to see that holding up in a best of 7. We are deeper, more talented and plenty of guys are having career year. 

[HKSR]

I didn't pick any team in the poll because I don't want to jinx us.  We get who we get.  Just play 60 minutes, play our game, and let the chips fall where they fall.  Luck has more to do with winning than almost anything else in the playoffs.  We've seen the powerhouses of the regular season get swept because of bad bounces or injuries/illness.

[smithers joe]

it would be nice to know what all those things mean. pdq.

[bh90]

I have tickets to round 1 so based on that I want Vegas

 

 

LA will be cringe worthy and not good value for money. 

 

Nashville I feel will lack that ultimate excitement.

 

Vegas will just be good hockey.. lots of storyline... good vibes... win or lose

[AnthonyG]

1 hour ago, smithers joe said:

it would be nice to know what all those things mean. pdq.

I can break it all down for you.

HDCF - High danger chances for

HDCA - High danger chances against

SCF - scoring chances for

SCA - scoring chances against

HDGF - high danger goals for

HDGA - high danger goals against

CORSI - is a calculation of shots for vs shots against. We control 60% of the shots against LAK, its 50/50 against NSH and VGK

xGA and xGF are expected goals for/against based on shot location. 
GF and GA I assume you know are goals for and goals against

[King Heffy]

Nashville really picked it up once they put Barrie in the press box where he belongs.  If they get a couple of injuries and dress that pylon, it's an easy win.  Neither of the other options has a guy who is that much of a liability and is at risk of playing.

Edited April 11 by King Heffy

[BCNeil]

1 hour ago, King Heffy said:

Nashville really picked it up once they put Barrie in the press box where he belongs.  If they get a couple of injuries and dress that pylon, it's an easy win.  Neither of the other options has a guy who is that much of a liability and is at risk of playing.

 

Oilers sure fleeced them on the Barrie trade.  

[DownUndaCanuck]

I'd say we've got a 90% chance at beating Nashville, a 60% chance at beating Vegas and a 25% chance at beating LA.

 

Soyeah, got to win the division. These next 3 games are arguably more important than the playoff games because we're not winning 4 against LA, we matchup so badly against them. Let Edmonton thrash them and we can easily take Edmonton on in the next round.

 

So without sounding too outrageous, Saturday is the game of the season and decides our entire year. Win and we've got a path, lose and we may well lose the division and end up with a first round bounce.

[Northern_Nuck]

13 hours ago, AnthonyG said:

We dominate possession and chances and its not even remotely close. Its hard to see that holding up in a best of 7. We are deeper, more talented and plenty of guys are having career year. 

Too bad games aren’t won based on possession, because we’re 1-3 against them while they’re 3-0-1 against us.  
 

 Possession on the perimeter isn’t the key to beating LA regardless of who’s playing for us, it’s the team I want to avoid. However I think when we go into the playoffs as the 2nd seed, I feel they’ll be 3rd and we get them first round. 

[OldFaithfulcap]

We play who we play. If we can play our game and demko is demko from

this year then we'll be fine. 
 

I'd rather not play la because of low event but whatever, screw 'em. 

[smithers joe]

11 hours ago, AnthonyG said:

I can break it all down for you.

HDCF - High danger chances for

HDCA - High danger chances against

SCF - scoring chances for

SCA - scoring chances against

HDGF - high danger goals for

HDGA - high danger goals against

CORSI - is a calculation of shots for vs shots against. We control 60% of the shots against LAK, its 50/50 against NSH and VGK

xGA and xGF are expected goals for/against based on shot location. 
GF and GA I assume you know are goals for and goals against

all that stuff is lost on me, mr. dim bulb.

[AnthonyG]

2 hours ago, Northern_Nuck said:

Too bad games aren’t won based on possession, because we’re 1-3 against them while they’re 3-0-1 against us.  
 

 Possession on the perimeter isn’t the key to beating LA regardless of who’s playing for us, it’s the team I want to avoid. However I think when we go into the playoffs as the 2nd seed, I feel they’ll be 3rd and we get them first round. 

Look at the heat map, scoring chances and high danger chances. We are far from a perimeter team vs LAK. We let in some weak goals, they’ve had solid goal tending, I dont believe that can last in a 7 game series.

[Coconuts]

I don't have a preference. Toronto wanted Florida and look what they got. Boston got punted in the first round after a record breaking season. There are no easy opponents to be had amongst Nashville, LA, Vegas, or St. Louis if they sneak in. 

 

We could beat any of these teams, or get punted out of the playoffs by any of these teams. 

[Bob Long]

securing home ice for round 1 was the big thing, imo. Everything else is just a different flavour of hard. 

[Integra250]

10 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I'd say we've got a 90% chance at beating Nashville, a 60% chance at beating Vegas and a 25% chance at beating LA.

 

Soyeah, got to win the division. These next 3 games are arguably more important than the playoff games because we're not winning 4 against LA, we matchup so badly against them. Let Edmonton thrash them and we can easily take Edmonton on in the next round.

 

So without sounding too outrageous, Saturday is the game of the season and decides our entire year. Win and we've got a path, lose and we may well lose the division and end up with a first round bounce.

I see it as :

 

Vegas: 50%
LA: 50%
Nashville: 50%

[Bob Long]

13 minutes ago, Integra250 said:

I see it as :

 

Vegas: 50%
LA: 50%
Nashville: 50%

 

exactly, you can script reasons we can win or lose for any of them. If this team can concentrate and execute to their abilities, I like our chances. I really think it has more to do with our own execution than who we face in round 1. 

 

[AnthonyG]

18 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I don't have a preference. Toronto wanted Florida and look what they got. Boston got punted in the first round after a record breaking season. There are no easy opponents to be had amongst Nashville, LA, Vegas, or St. Louis if they sneak in. 

 

We could beat any of these teams, or get punted out of the playoffs by any of these teams. 

Keep in mind, Florida was the presidents trophy winner the season prior. Everyone forgets they were the #1 team in the league and as if they were just some 8th seed who upset the top team. Florida was not to be taken lightly by any means, they made it to the finals for a reason

[Coconuts]

1 minute ago, AnthonyG said:

Keep in mind, Florida was the presidents trophy winner the season prior. Everyone forgets they were the #1 team in the league and as if they were just some 8th seed who upset the top team. Florida was not to be taken lightly by any means, they made it to the finals for a reason

 

Sure, they weren't your typical 8th seed, but the fact remains: there are no guarantees come playoff time regardless of who you play. 

 

Vegas has underwhelmed of late but they're also missing guys and remain last season's cup winner. Their cup winning roster is largely intact. 

 

Nashville has been one of the hottest teams down the stretch, sometimes being hot at the right time makes the difference. 

 

LA is built for the playoffs imo, they're a tough team to break through once they've got a lead and they're very committed to their systems. Their top guys don't have the high end production of our top end guys but they're a team that features good depth, they're also one of the best defensive team in the league even if their offensive stats are more middling. 

 

St. Louis has basically been playing playoff games for much of the past month and a bit, every game has been critical as they've tried to reel in one of LA, Vegas, and Nashville. 

 

I don't care who we play, I don't even care if Edmonton passes us and wins the division, because there will be no easy opponent. You've got to beat the best to be the best. Playoffs are a different animal entirely and our core is still relatively inexperienced when it comes to the playoffs. 

[AnthonyG]

7 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

Sure, they weren't your typical 8th seed, but the fact remains: there are no guarantees come playoff time regardless of who you play. 

 

Vegas has underwhelmed of late but they're also missing guys and remain last season's cup winner. Their cup winning roster is largely intact. 

 

Nashville has been one of the hottest teams down the stretch, sometimes being hot at the right time makes the difference. 

 

LA is built for the playoffs imo, they're a tough team to break through once they've got a lead and they're very committed to their systems. Their top guys don't have the high end production of our top end guys but they're a team that features good depth, they're also one of the best defensive team in the league even if their offensive stats are more middling. 

 

St. Louis has basically been playing playoff games for much of the past month and a bit, every game has been critical as they've tried to reel in one of LA, Vegas, and Nashville. 

 

I don't care who we play, I don't even care if Edmonton passes us and wins the division, because there will be no easy opponent. You've got to beat the best to be the best. Playoffs are a different animal entirely and our core is still relatively inexperienced when it comes to the playoffs. 

We consistently break through LAK's D and expose high danger area's every time we play. We keep them largely out to the perimeter. Either way, doesnt matter you gotta beat whoever's in front of you. I have faith we can beat any team in a best of 7. 

[Coconuts]

1 minute ago, AnthonyG said:

We consistently break through LAK's D and expose high danger area's every time we play. We keep them largely out to the perimeter. Either way, doesnt matter you gotta beat whoever's in front of you. I have faith we can beat any team in a best of 7. 

 

Maybe, but the playoffs are a different animal and most of LA's current roster is playoff seasoned given this would be their third straight playoff appearance. Doughty and Kopitar have extensive playoff resumes as difference makers as well. 

 

I don't look forward to playing any of these teams, but it'll be fun to see how we do. I'm personally not expecting us to go beyond the second round, but playoff experience in itself will be extremely valuable going forward. But as you've said, gotta beat whoever you get, fans can go around in circles and hockey players themselves can have their preferences, but ultimately it doesn't matter. 

 

Given how the last decade has gone just getting to the dance in itself has been a step forward, the season has already been a success regardless of how things go come playoff time imo. Most teams have to do their time making the playoffs consistently and getting booted out before breaking through, getting in at all is the first step to becoming a playoff regular. 

[AnthonyG]

3 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

Maybe, but the playoffs are a different animal and most of LA's current roster is playoff seasoned given this would be their third straight playoff appearance. Doughty and Kopitar have extensive playoff resumes as difference makers as well. 

 

I don't look forward to playing any of these teams, but it'll be fun to see how we do. I'm personally not expecting us to go beyond the second round, but playoff experience in itself will be extremely valuable going forward. But as you've said, gotta beat whoever you get, fans can go around in circles and hockey players themselves can have their preferences, but ultimately it doesn't matter. 

 

Given how the last decade has gone just getting to the dance in itself has been a step forward, the season has already been a success regardless of how things go come playoff time imo. Most teams have to do their time making the playoffs consistently and getting booted out before breaking through, getting in at all is the first step to becoming a playoff regular. 

If you look at basically every cup winner, they have a Miller, Pettersson, Hughes and Demko. We have the recipe and plenty of support and guys deeper in the lineup who are making a difference in every game. Garland, Bleuger, Joshua.

Mikheyev has looked like he has a bit more jump, our C's are destroying the faceoff dots.... Possession bodes will in a best of 7. 

[Coconuts]

5 minutes ago, AnthonyG said:

If you look at basically every cup winner, they have a Miller, Pettersson, Hughes and Demko. We have the recipe and plenty of support and guys deeper in the lineup who are making a difference in every game. Garland, Bleuger, Joshua.

Mikheyev has looked like he has a bit more jump, our C's are destroying the faceoff dots.... Possession bodes will in a best of 7. 

 

Perhaps, but if you look at almost every cup winner over the past decade or so they've had to do their time before breaking through. It goes back further than that too. The closest things to exceptions are Chicago's one season runway before winning in 2010 (they went to the conference final), and LA's two season runway prior to winning in 2012. 

 

By and large most teams do their time, I couldn't tell you the last time a team consistently missed the playoffs, stepped back into the playoffs, and won a cup. It's likely been a good while though.

 

More than likely the Canucks will have to do their time like most other cup winners have. 

Edited April 11 by Coconuts

[Jess]

Honestly, I don't really care. There's no easy opponent.

 

Probably Vegas because of two reasons:

 

1. Vegas might be easiest in round 1. If they win a round and we have to face them in round 2 if we make it there, the snowball effect will be real for them and they might be harder in the 2nd round.

 

2. Vegas is probably the team against whom we'd be the least favoured. I'd rather be underdogs and be "playing with house money", so to speak.