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[Signings] NHL Sets Arbitration, Offer Sheet Thresholds For 2024


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NHL Sets Arbitration, Offer Sheet Thresholds For 2024

 

May 31st, 2024 at 1:47pm CST • By Josh Erickson

 

Offer sheets haven’t overtaken offseason discourse in three years now. Only the Canadiens and Hurricanes have gotten in on the little-used RFA acquisition technique in recent years, with Montreal unsuccessfully trying to steal star center Sebastian Aho from Carolina in 2019 and the Canes gaining 2018 third-overall pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi via an unmatched one-year, $6.1MM offer.

 

There are some RFAs this summer that seem less-than-likely to re-sign with their current clubs, namely Hurricanes forward Martin Nečas and Canucks defenseman Filip Hronek. While both are expected to change hands via trade if they do move teams this summer, they’re both eligible to sign offer sheets if a team presents one.

 

Thresholds are derived from the league’s average salary, which jumped over six percent from last season. As such, the goalposts for each draft pick compensation tier have moved toward the higher-value end of the field, with PuckPedia confirming this year’s full breakdown:

 

AAVDraft picks required

 

$1.51MM or lessNo compensation

 

$1.51MM to $2.29MMThird-round pick

 

$2.29MM to $4.58MMSecond-round pick

 

$4.58MM to $6.87MMFirst and third-round picks

 

$6.87MM to $9.16MMFirst, second and third-round picks

 

$9.16MM to $11.45MMTwo firsts, a second and third-round picks

 

Over $11.45MMFour first-round picks

 

It is important to note that any team trying to sign a player to an applicable offer sheet must use their own draft picks for compensation, not acquired ones. That rules several teams out already from signing high-profile RFAs unless they were to work to reacquire their picks before submitting the contract.

 

An offer sheet’s average annual value is also calculated slightly differently than a standard contract. If the contract is longer than five years, the total salary is still divided by five to determine the AAV. That would mean a seven-year contract worth $8MM per season ($56MM total value) would carry an AAV of $11.2MM for the purposes of offer sheet compensation. For more information about the details of offer sheets, check out CapFriendly’s FAQ.


Additionally, with the league’s average salary rebounding past its pre-pandemic figure, the arbitration award required for a team to walk away from a deal has increased for the first time since 2020. That number is now roughly $4.74MM, per PuckPedia, jumping around $200K. If an arbitrator awards a one- or two-year deal with an AAV less than $4.74MM, a team must sign the contract.

 

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2024/05/nhl-sets-arbitration-offer-sheet-thresholds-for-2024.html#ref=home

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It's a vulture system. And GM's don't like being the targets. So if you if you raid another team. Don't be surprised that they will do the same thing back.

That's why it doesn't really work. It would be better if you can have a buyout every second/third year that doesn't count against your cap. Player gets paid, but it helps correct the mistakes of boneheaded GM's.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

it would actually be worth it for a team to offer sheet Hronek in the 8+ range. A late 1st, 2nd and 3rd isn't an overpayment. 

Exactly my thoughts and why I posted. 
He’s an upper tier RHD, young, and his salary is reasonable for some clubs to take on while also providing the minimum in assets as a return…intriguing, but unlikely.

 

although we could parlay those picks, we still are stuck with a major loss on D and puts us into a tougher negotiation with teams whom we may be trying to trade with (if we can’t fill through UFA)

Edited by RWJC
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Just now, RWJC said:

Exactly my thoughts and why I posted. 
He’s an upper tier RHD, young, and his salary is reasonable for some clubs to take on while also providing the minimum in assets as a return…intriguing, but unlikely.

 

although we could parlay those picks, we still are stuck with a major loss on D and puts us into a tougher negotiation with teams whom we may be trying to trade with (if we can’t full through UFA)

 

agreed. It actually is kind of in the risk category for us. 

 

Whats interesting about the compensation calc is if you go from 5 years to 6 years at 8.5 mil, it two first rounders, 2nd and 3rd. Or go 8.6 for 5 years. 

 

So, I think we'd match 8.5 x 5 years given the alternative. 

 

So would any team go for the 2 1sts, 2nd, 3rd option? because I don't believe we'd match that. https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator

 

Maybe the Islanders? some crazy Lou moment? 

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30 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

it would actually be worth it for a team to offer sheet Hronek in the 8+ range. A late 1st, 2nd and 3rd isn't an overpayment. 

Picks would be great, but it still leaves a hole on the Right Side.

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32 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

it would actually be worth it for a team to offer sheet Hronek in the 8+ range. A late 1st, 2nd and 3rd isn't an overpayment. 

Allvin would have a week to shop the picks and gauge that return with keeping Hronek. Really an offer sheet works nicely for us. 

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42 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

it would actually be worth it for a team to offer sheet Hronek in the 8+ range. A late 1st, 2nd and 3rd isn't an overpayment. 

 

You are assuming the offer sheet is from one of the contenders. Most of the contenders have cap issues and already have top level defensemen taking large number of their cap, so any realistic offer sheets might actually come from the middle/low parts of the table. Teams that can afford that 8+ million defenseman would be primarily looking for him to be their #1 guy and he might be well worth it for such teams. But he's not worth this much to the Canucks, since he will never be ahead of Hughes on the depth chart. So the picks might be pretty high (higher than the 17th and 43rd that we gave up). That would be ideal situation if Hronek indeed is looking for 8+ mil.

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1 minute ago, RomanPer said:

 

You are assuming the offer sheet is from one of the contenders. Most of the contenders have cap issues and already have top level defensemen taking large number of their cap, so any realistic offer sheets might actually come from the middle/low parts of the table. Teams that can afford that 8+ million defenseman would be primarily looking for him to be their #1 guy and he might be well worth it for such teams. But he's not worth this much to the Canucks, since he will never be ahead of Hughes on the depth chart. So the picks might be pretty high (higher than the 17th and 43rd that we gave up). That would be ideal situation if Hronek indeed is looking for 8+ mil.

 

true I was only thinking of Hronek signing with a contender, but you're right if its all about the $, then he may sign with someone like ANA. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

true I was only thinking of Hronek signing with a contender, but you're right if its all about the $, then he may sign with someone like ANA. 

Draft day trade to Anaheim for Noah Warren?

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24 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

RHD, will be 20 in July. 6'4" 215 lbs.

 

 

Normally I like to acquire larger prospects.

A former second round pick.

 

Have never seen any video of this player, so I have no idea how he plays. Not many penalty minutes for a large junior player.

A friendly giant?

 

Had a quick look at Noah Warren's stats in the QMJHL. They appear to be quite pedestrian. Nothing stood out to me.

 

What am I missing about this player?

 

 

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20 hours ago, Bob Long said:

it would actually be worth it for a team to offer sheet Hronek in the 8+ range. A late 1st, 2nd and 3rd isn't an overpayment. 

I'd take that. I like Hronek, but not for 8+. Take the picks and sign Tanev/Pesce.

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I'd say the max is 6.7 for Hronek. If he signs an offer at 6.8 + I'd rather have the 1st, 2nd, n 3rd round picks. We can use the cash n grab a couple stop gaps (ie Dillon Tanev etc…) until Willander is ready to go. 

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2 hours ago, Cameron88188 said:

I'd say the max is 6.7 for Hronek. If he signs an offer at 6.8 + I'd rather have the 1st, 2nd, n 3rd round picks. We can use the cash n grab a couple stop gaps (ie Dillon Tanev etc…) until Willander is ready to go. 

Sounds about right, Hronek around 6.5 makes sense for us. Maybe 7 if we are feeling generous.

 

Banking on Willander to jump in is a huge gamble. I think that's where we sign Myers or whoever short term for a top 4 role. Hronek can play bigger minutes, but not worth keeping if he wants too much.

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Granted you can trade to get your picks back, but only these teams have 1,2,3rd pick in the draft to make that offer sheet:
Calgary
St Louis
Philadelphia
Seattle
Buffalo
Nashville
Carolina
Detroit
Anaheim
Chicago
Utah

Out of those teams, these ones could do the offer sheet and still have round 1-3 picks;
Calgary
Philadelphia
Anaheim

Chicago
San Jose

Out of those teams, it only makes sense for Calgary.

Philly doesn't have the cap space, and Anaheim, Chicago and San Jose are still early in their rebuild so it doesn't make sense.

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19 minutes ago, gizmo2337 said:

Granted you can trade to get your picks back, but only these teams have 1,2,3rd pick in the draft to make that offer sheet:
Calgary
St Louis
Philadelphia
Seattle
Buffalo
Nashville
Carolina
Detroit
Anaheim
Chicago
Utah

Out of those teams, these ones could do the offer sheet and still have round 1-3 picks;
Calgary
Philadelphia
Anaheim

Chicago
San Jose

Out of those teams, it only makes sense for Calgary.

Philly doesn't have the cap space, and Anaheim, Chicago and San Jose are still early in their rebuild so it doesn't make sense.

....and Calgary Canucks....  they like to take our ex players...

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1 minute ago, spook007 said:

....and Calgary Canucks....  they like to take our ex players...

Bring it on Lames. 
IF you can draft Tij Iginla (which it’s looking like he’s going to go before their pick), he would be a nice future offer sheet revenge move 

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