HKSR Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 (edited) I'm sure many of us would like to trade Mikheyev for a bag of pucks, but it just might not happen at a cost that is deemed reasonable by PA/JR. If we BUYOUT Mikheyev: Re-Signings: Hronek at $7.25M Lindholm at $7.25M Zadorov at $5.25M Myers at $3M Silovs at $2M Blueger at $2M UFA Signing - Chatfield at $2M UFA Loss - Joshua Suter-Miller-Boeser Hoglander-Lindholm-Pettersson Podkolzin-Blueger-Garland PDG-Aman-Karlsson Hughes-Hronek Zadorov-Myers Soucy-Chatfield End of the world? Nope. We'd probably still be a very competitive team. Only problem is I don't see any real improvement from a roster standpoint. It would need to be improvement from within. The hope is the line of Hoglander-Lindholm-Petey clicks. That alone would be a big improvement overall. The other issue is 2025/26. We begin to run into cap issues with nearly $7M of dead cap on the books. This isn't ideal by any means, but it may be our reality. See This Post for If we DO NOT Buyout Mikheyev: Edited June 7 by HKSR 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 I can pretty much guarantee you that we are not re-signing all of Lindholm, Hronek and Zadorov. It will 2 of the 3 maximum... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 I think Juulson can do the job of Chatfiled, and Silovs won't be getting 2 mil, probably closer to 1. If we resign Guentzel instead of Lindy we have a pretty darn good top 6. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_Hawk Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 39 minutes ago, HKSR said: I'm sure many of us would like to trade Mikheyev for a bag of pucks, but it just might not happen at a cost that is deemed reasonable by PA/JR. So where does that leave us? Here is an example of what it could look like with a Mikheyev buyout and the impact into the next few years: Re-Signings: Hronek at $7.25M Lindholm at $7.25M Zadorov at $5.25M Myers at $3M Silovs at $2M Blueger at $2M UFA Signing - Chatfield at $2M UFA Loss - Joshua Suter-Miller-Boeser Hoglander-Lindholm-Pettersson Podkolzin-Blueger-Garland PDG-Aman-Karlsson Hughes-Hronek Zadorov-Myers Soucy-Chatfield End of the world? Nope. We'd probably still be a very competitive team. Only problem is I don't see any real improvement from a roster standpoint. It would need to be improvement from within. The hope is the line of Hoglander-Lindholm-Petey clicks. That alone would be a big improvement overall. The other issue is 2025/26. We begin to run into cap issues with nearly $7M of dead cap on the books. This isn't ideal by any means, but it may be our reality. I'd rather pay the piper, and trade him with draft capital so as to avoid the buyout and still open up cap. Couple changes: - Don't resign Blueger unless he is willing to do a ~1.5m deal (unlikelyy). We can run Suter in the 3C spot UNLESS Raty shines in camp (-1m) - Don't sign Chatfield; let Juulsen have the 3rd RHD spot. I'd also try to rtesign Cole at vet minimum to split time there (-1.2m) - Trade vs Buyout Mik (-1.15m) - Free space (-1.25m) Total Space Available: 4.6m I'd then use this money to go get a Top6 Fwd to bridge to Lekkermaki. Hog-Lindholm-Pettersson FA-Miller-Beoser Podz-Suter-Garland Karlsson/Vet Min FA-Aman/Raty-Bains/Vet Min FA 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 15 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: I can pretty much guarantee you that we are not re-signing all of Lindholm, Hronek and Zadorov. It will 2 of the 3 maximum... I think of those 3, Lindholm would be the least likely to be re-signed. The reason being that we know Petey CAN play centre. We could just as easily find a winger for Petey for less than Lindholm. We'd be hard pressed to find a top pairing RHD for much less than Hronek. Zadorov is a unicorn, plus I think he actually really wants to stay. Could mean a cap friendlier contract. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_Hawk Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 4 minutes ago, Bob Long said: I think Juulson can do the job of Chatfiled, and Silovs won't be getting 2 mil, probably closer to 1. If we resign Guentzel instead of Lindy we have a pretty darn good top 6. Agree...then I would circle back on Blueger to round out the centers. That's leave some money to buy a budget Top6 fwd and some FA 4th liners too. Hogs-Pettersson-Guentzel FA(Toffoli??)-Miller-Beoser Podz-Blueger-Garland Suter-Aman/Raty-Bains/Karllson 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 3 minutes ago, BC_Hawk said: I'd rather pay the piper, and trade him with draft capital so as to avoid the buyout and still open up cap. Couple changes: - Don't resign Blueger unless he is willing to do a ~1.5m deal (unlikelyy). We can run Suter in the 3C spot UNLESS Raty shines in camp (-1m) - Don't sign Chatfield; let Juulsen have the 3rd RHD spot. I'd also try to rtesign Cole at vet minimum to split time there (-1.2m) - Trade vs Buyout Mik (-1.15m) - Free space (-1.25m) Total Space Available: 4.6m I'd then use this money to go get a Top6 Fwd to bridge to Lekkermaki. Hog-Lindholm-Pettersson FA-Miller-Beoser Podz-Suter-Garland Karlsson/Vet Min FA-Aman/Raty-Bains/Vet Min FA Personally I'm with you. I'd rather pay a sweetener to clear the full $4.75M. We need that space much more than futures at this point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 1 minute ago, BC_Hawk said: Agree...then I would circle back on Blueger to round out the centers. That's leave some money to buy a budget Top6 fwd and some FA 4th liners too. Hogs-Pettersson-Guentzel FA(Toffoli??)-Miller-Beoser Podz-Blueger-Garland Suter-Aman/Raty-Bains/Karllson yep, I like the mix in there of scoring potential and defensive lines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 6 minutes ago, HKSR said: I think of those 3, Lindholm would be the least likely to be re-signed. The reason being that we know Petey CAN play centre. We could just as easily find a winger for Petey for less than Lindholm. We'd be hard pressed to find a top pairing RHD for much less than Hronek. Zadorov is a unicorn, plus I think he actually really wants to stay. Could mean a cap friendlier contract. I doubt we find a top 6 legit winger for less cost than Lindholm. If we re-sign Lindholm, Petey will play the wing. If we don't re-sign him then we are making a trade. We aren't signing Guentzel to a $9 million AAV contract... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hairy Kneel Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 I would deeply explore options available in free agency. To find a replacement for Hronek @ 5M. Pesce Matt Roy Montour Sean Walker Find one that comes close Even Tanev for 2 seasons is a possibility. Willander and Dpetie or a couple of others may join us for a cup of coffee next year and see where their at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_Hawk Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 (edited) 11 minutes ago, HKSR said: Personally I'm with you. I'd rather pay a sweetener to clear the full $4.75M. We need that space much more than futures at this point. Yes, Lekkermaki and Willander are the next big developmental guys we need in this window, and we already got them. The other developmental guys are just bottom 6 depth guys. A good scouting and coaching staff in Abby develop those guys from nothing (ie. Dakota). Losing another 1st isn't the at end of the world. Lekkermaki NEEDS to be ready by the start of 25/26. That'll free up cap to resign Beoser, Hogs and Demko. Ditto if Willander can displace Myers in the next few years. The key here is not handcuffing the team cap wise in the future to get 3m of space this year. OEL was our one big OPPS that would of taken way more tahn a 1st to unload. For only one first, jettisoning Mik is WELL worth it. Edited June 6 by BC_Hawk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_Hawk Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 3 minutes ago, Hairy Kneel said: I would deeply explore options available in free agency. To find a replacement for Hronek @ 5M. Pesce Matt Roy Montour Sean Walker Find one that comes close Even Tanev for 2 seasons is a possibility. Willander and Dpetie or a couple of others may join us for a cup of coffee next year and see where their at. I'd utilize the leverage that the RFA gives us, and sign Hronek longterm reasonable contract (the one year of team control will do that). A stop gap measure like Tanev or some of the older FA Dman isn't smart. Between Hronek, Willander, and D.Petterson our RHD spot SHOULD be in good hands moving fwd beyond 2026. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_Hawk Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 12 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: I doubt we find a top 6 legit winger for less cost than Lindholm. If we re-sign Lindholm, Petey will play the wing. If we don't re-sign him then we are making a trade. We aren't signing Guentzel to a $9 million AAV contract... Then you resign Lindholm and a budget Top6 (not legit) guy to fill the void until Lekkermaki is ready. The key here is managing the cap and our window; don't ruin the cap beyond 24/25 for some magic beans (Mik buyout) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzy Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 29 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: I doubt we find a top 6 legit winger for less cost than Lindholm. If we re-sign Lindholm, Petey will play the wing. If we don't re-sign him then we are making a trade. We aren't signing Guentzel to a $9 million AAV contract... I agree. Lindholm gives us more options in the future and keeps our center depth. There are always wingers available and if needed we can go after one at the deadline if none of those pan out. The cap will be rising significantly in the next few years so I would be less concerned about term and look for the right fit. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 Trade Garland to clear all his cap. Trade Mik straight across for Pageau. Sign Guentzel. Sign Joshua. Sign Big Z. Lindy and Garland are gone. Money for the other guys we need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker67 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 My guess is Allvin will trade Mikheyev, along with the 2025 1st, to get a Top 6 winger for Petey. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said: I doubt we find a top 6 legit winger for less cost than Lindholm. If we re-sign Lindholm, Petey will play the wing. If we don't re-sign him then we are making a trade. We aren't signing Guentzel to a $9 million AAV contract... William Karlsson could be had for cheap since VGK is looking to free up cap. $5.9M cap hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hairy Kneel Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 6 hours ago, BC_Hawk said: I'd utilize the leverage that the RFA gives us, and sign Hronek longterm reasonable contract (the one year of team control will do that). A stop gap measure like Tanev or some of the older FA Dman isn't smart. Between Hronek, Willander, and D.Petterson our RHD spot SHOULD be in good hands moving fwd beyond 2026. It's the reasonable contract part that bothers me. Not 8M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_Hawk Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 9 hours ago, Hairy Kneel said: It's the reasonable contract part that bothers me. Not 8M He will not get 8m nor does he expect that. What we are seeing here is simply the RFA dance. Hronek is tied to the team for 24/25, and doesn't have the ability to sign elsewhere. All he can do is negotiate with Canucks with no rush nor pressure...and if nothing is done by June 30th, sign the QO OR select arbitration. After, the negotiations will simply go on. My guess; Hronek will sign his QO on June 30th. He will then sign a 7/8 year contract once he and team get a look at what Dmen are getting in FA. His deal will be inline with what we have seen; ~7.25m. Even with the FA data points, he is still on a discount bc of the 24/25 team control year plus the ability for another year on contract (7 to 8). The only other option I could see is him signing a 6.5m bridge for 2 years and betting on his stats getting better and the ability to hit FA as his opportunity for a pay day. That is a gamble for both he and the team; one in hand vs two in the bush...... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hairy Kneel Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 2 hours ago, BC_Hawk said: He will not get 8m nor does he expect that. What we are seeing here is simply the RFA dance. Hronek is tied to the team for 24/25, and doesn't have the ability to sign elsewhere. All he can do is negotiate with Canucks with no rush nor pressure...and if nothing is done by June 30th, sign the QO OR select arbitration. After, the negotiations will simply go on. My guess; Hronek will sign his QO on June 30th. He will then sign a 7/8 year contract once he and team get a look at what Dmen are getting in FA. His deal will be inline with what we have seen; ~7.25m. Even with the FA data points, he is still on a discount bc of the 24/25 team control year plus the ability for another year on contract (7 to 8). The only other option I could see is him signing a 6.5m bridge for 2 years and betting on his stats getting better and the ability to hit FA as his opportunity for a pay day. That is a gamble for both he and the team; one in hand vs two in the bush...... 6.5 I could live with But expect him to show up in the playoffs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted June 7 Author Share Posted June 7 (edited) WHAT IF WE DO NOT BUYOUT MIKHEYEV? Yes, there is a scenario where we would probably still be very competitive. This could be a path that PA/JR walk down to see if Mikheyev bounces back so moving him would be an easier task. We've seen guys on the trade block become major contributors shortly after (Boeser and Garland)... could it happen again? Mikheyev-Miller-Boeser Hoglander-Lindholm-Pettersson Podkolzin-Suter-Garland PDG-Aman-Karlsson Hughes-Hronek Zadorov-Myers Soucy-Juulsen Edited June 7 by HKSR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_Nuck Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 22 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: I can pretty much guarantee you that we are not re-signing all of Lindholm, Hronek and Zadorov. It will 2 of the 3 maximum... And if we sign 2 of them, expect to lose both Demko and Boeser in the next couple years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_Nuck Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 2 hours ago, HKSR said: WHAT IF WE DO NOT BUYOUT MIKHEYEV? Yes, there is a scenario where we would probably still be very competitive. This could be a path that PA/JR walk down to see if Mikheyev bounces back so moving him would be an easier task. We've seen guys on the trade block become major contributors shortly after (Boeser and Garland)... could it happen again? Mikheyev-Miller-Boeser Hoglander-Lindholm-Pettersson Podkolzin-Suter-Garland PDG-Aman-Karlsson Hughes-Hronek Zadorov-Myers Soucy-Juulsen Most analysts agree that Boeser will get 9-10m/season, so I’m just asking what’s the theory behind him taking a 2-3 million/season discount? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted June 7 Author Share Posted June 7 26 minutes ago, Northern_Nuck said: Most analysts agree that Boeser will get 9-10m/season, so I’m just asking what’s the theory behind him taking a 2-3 million/season discount? $9 to $10M???!?! I would LOVE to read the articles presented by the analysts that project such an astronomical figure. Forwards typically are paid $1M for every 10 points of production. Are we expecting Boeser to hit 90 to 100 points? Boeser had a year where the puck couldn't have been more fortuitous for him. His normal shooting % in his career is 12 to 13%. He was shooting at a seriously unsustainable 19.6% this year. Realistically, unless he puts a LOT more pucks on net, he will regress back to the 25 to 35 goal range. He also is much more likely to get 25 to 35 assists. So unless Boeser's game DRAMATICALLY changes in one offseason and he turns into a 45 to 50 goal guy AND a 40 to 55 assist guy, I don't see any world where he would get anywhere near the 90 to 100 points he would need to land a $9M to $10M deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_Nuck Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 1 hour ago, HKSR said: $9 to $10M???!?! I would LOVE to read the articles presented by the analysts that project such an astronomical figure. Forwards typically are paid $1M for every 10 points of production. Are we expecting Boeser to hit 90 to 100 points? Boeser had a year where the puck couldn't have been more fortuitous for him. His normal shooting % in his career is 12 to 13%. He was shooting at a seriously unsustainable 19.6% this year. Realistically, unless he puts a LOT more pucks on net, he will regress back to the 25 to 35 goal range. He also is much more likely to get 25 to 35 assists. So unless Boeser's game DRAMATICALLY changes in one offseason and he turns into a 45 to 50 goal guy AND a 40 to 55 assist guy, I don't see any world where he would get anywhere near the 90 to 100 points he would need to land a $9M to $10M deal. If it’s based on goal scoring, only 4/18 that hit 40 goals made less than 8.5m/season. With 9 of the 18 making at least 9m/season. The average 40 goal scorer last year was paid 8.6m/season. If Boeser hits 40 again you can guarantee the lowest his agent lets him go for would be 8m/season… because someone out there will offer 9-10… maybe even 11 if he becomes an UFA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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