[Discussion] Projecting with and without Mikheyev Buyout

[HKSR]

So crunching the numbers after Hronek's signing yesterday, and listening to Allvin's comments about Juulsen and McWard, this is where I'm landing with next year's roster.

 

Suter-Miller-Boeser

Hoglander-Pettersson-Guentzel

Podkolzin-Blueger-Garland

Duhaime-Aman-Karlsson

PDG

 

Hughes-Hronek

Soucy-Myers

Dillon-Juulsen

Mcward

 

I feel that this is the 'safe' bet.  Trading Mikheyev with 2 years left and a $4.75M cap hit won't be easy or cheap.  The buyout route may be the way PA has to go with this, but what it does is costs us our chance to re-sign Big Z. 

 

We also heard Allvin call Juulsen a top 6 defender.  That leads me to think he will have a full time role next year.  He then followed up with Mcward having a great year and expects him to work hard this summer -- 7th D opportunity written all over those comments.

 

We have also heard clear rumblings around Guentzel and possibly Duhaime.  They would be our upgrades for the forward group.

 

Overall, I'd say this is an improved roster over last year, simply because of the addition of Guentzel to the top 6 as a significant upgrade, and Duhaime to the 4th line.  Losing Joshua hurts, but I think Podkolzin can provide 75% of what Joshua brought.  Defence wasn't an issue last year.  Dillon brings 80% of what Zadorov does, and Juulsen is another year more mature.  Likewise Hughes and Hronek will continue to grow.  I predict another 100+ point season and another solid playoff run.

 

[Bob Long]

Wouldn't surprise me at all of this is the roster next camp. 

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

Wouldn't surprise me at all of this is the roster next camp. 

Hopefully we can trade Mikheyev and bring back Big Z.  Our D core looks very menacing when he's there along with Soucy, Myers and Juulsen.

[48MPHSlapshot]

Zadorov was so important for us, especially in the playoffs. I think getting him signed needs to be priority number one, even if it means missing out on Guentzel and having to bolster our top 6 via the secondary market. 

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, 48MPHSlapshot said:

Zadorov was so important for us, especially in the playoffs. I think getting him signed needs to be priority number one, even if it means missing out on Guentzel and having to bolster our top 6 via the secondary market. 

I can see where PA/JR are coming from though.  IF we signed Z to the $5M+ contract, Zadorov would literally need to play at his ceiling for the cap to make sense.  We saw it for 13 games in the playoffs.  If Z goes back to the usual defenceman he has been his ENTIRE career, then we are now overpaying.

 

With Guentzel, the odds of him hitting PPG+ (ie. a $9M forward) is much higher considering he has done it numerous times in his career. 

 

This is all about finding value per cap hit.  You find enough guys that play at or above their cap hit, and you will find success.

[48MPHSlapshot]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

I can see where PA/JR are coming from though.  IF we signed Z to the $5M+ contract, Zadorov would literally need to play at his ceiling for the cap to make sense.  We saw it for 13 games in the playoffs.  If Z goes back to the usual defenceman he has been his ENTIRE career, then we are now overpaying.

 

With Guentzel, the odds of him hitting PPG+ (ie. a $9M forward) is much higher considering he has done it numerous times in his career. 

 

This is all about finding value per cap hit.  You find enough guys that play at or above their cap hit, and you will find success.

The intangibles that Zadorov brings are so important though. He brings accountability to the lineup, and that's so damn important, especially when some of our star players like Petey and Hughes are undersized. Not to mention how important defensive depth is. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Guentzel in a Canuck uniform, but Zadorov has been an unbelievably good fit here I feel gives our team more dimension than we would have otherwise.

 

Hopefully Allvin can pull a rabbit out of his hat and somehow get both signed. 

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, 48MPHSlapshot said:

The intangibles that Zadorov brings are so important though. He brings accountability to the lineup, and that's so damn important, especially when some of our star players like Petey and Hughes are undersized. Not to mention how important defensive depth is. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Guentzel in a Canuck uniform, but Zadorov has been an unbelievably good fit here I feel gives our team more dimension than we would have otherwise.

 

Hopefully Allvin can pull a rabbit out of his hat and somehow get both signed. 

Get Mikheyev out of there for a bag of pucks and we can get both signed.

[fuzzy]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

I can see where PA/JR are coming from though.  IF we signed Z to the $5M+ contract, Zadorov would literally need to play at his ceiling for the cap to make sense.  We saw it for 13 games in the playoffs.  If Z goes back to the usual defenceman he has been his ENTIRE career, then we are now overpaying.

 

With Guentzel, the odds of him hitting PPG+ (ie. a $9M forward) is much higher considering he has done it numerous times in his career. 

 

This is all about finding value per cap hit.  You find enough guys that play at or above their cap hit, and you will find success.

I think the risk of Guentzel's contract aging poorly is higher than Zadorov's. Big defensemen typically develop later and they  remain healthier throughout their mid 30's. 

[Bonkers]

You said with and without Mik...

 

Without:

Suter-Miller-Boeser

Hoglander-Pettersson-Guentzel

Podkolzin-Blueger-Garland

Duhaime-Aman-Karlsson

PDG

 

Hughes-Hronek

Soucy-Myers

Dillon-Juulsen

Mcward

 

 

With:

Suter-Miller-Boeser

Hoglander-Pettersson-Duclair/Debrusk

Mik-Blueger-Garland

Podz-Aman-Karlsson

PDG

 

Hughes-Hronek

Soucy-Myers

Dillon-Juulsen

Mcward

[Bonkers]

Also, a lot of voices wanted to trade Boeser, Garland and Myers a year ago. All three bounced back,wouldn't you say. Maybe Mikheyev can have a bounce back season having a full preseason and healthy knee.

 

If I were him I'd work on my shot all summer.

[IBatch]

On 6/19/2024 at 12:30 PM, 48MPHSlapshot said:

The intangibles that Zadorov brings are so important though. He brings accountability to the lineup, and that's so damn important, especially when some of our star players like Petey and Hughes are undersized. Not to mention how important defensive depth is. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Guentzel in a Canuck uniform, but Zadorov has been an unbelievably good fit here I feel gives our team more dimension than we would have otherwise.

 

Hopefully Allvin can pull a rabbit out of his hat and somehow get both signed. 

Given the OP is suggesting 4 for Dillon, don't think it would be much of a stretch to add Zadorov, just means a buyout isn't happening.    One thing is, Zadorov wants to be here, maybe Dillon has no desire to come here.     Think they will get it done.    And maybe Guentzel is this administrations OEL, they just don't know it yet.    His age is worrisome.   Zadorov's not in the least given he's younger and won't be signing for as long.   And his cap hit, was worth 6-7 this playoffs.   4.75 x 6 or 5.25 x 5 makes of sense. 

Edited June 24 by IBatch