StanleyCupOneDay

Oh, it’s beyond parody. 1/3rd of the miniscule funds the RNC has raised so far can’t be spent on any election campaign. Biden, between his big 3 fundraising organizations of his campaign, his superPAC and the DNC have $155m COH. Trump has $42m COH. In January Biden raised $42m. In February he raised $53m. He has the most ever COH for any Democratic president at this point in his term. Trump raised $20m or $30m depending on which organizations you count, in February. It’s so bad that it’s hitting downballot. After Kevin McCarthy, the California Republican speaker, was ousted, vulnerable Biden district or barely Trump district Republican incumbents lost 1/3rd of their funding after Q4, which is the worst fundraising quarter for all campaigns. Democratic state parties are flush with cash and Republican ones are broke, especially Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota and Nevada. The only relatively decent fundraising organizations on the right currently are the GOP Senate and House campaign arms, but the DCCC is still out raising NRCC. Senate they’re doing well for, but that’s about it. That doesn’t even take into account the gap of individual campaign fundraising for tons of other races where Democrats are almost all outraising their Republican opponent. It’s kind of hard to overstate just how much of an issue they have right now. Especially after wooing and winning over never before donors to the Trump campaign for many, many millions. One thing is for sure: If Democrats lose in 2024 it won’t be because of money. If anyone’s interested, opensecrets has campaign reports you can search through to see the differences.

Just popping in for another special election. This time a flip from red to blue in Alabama, the Huntsville suburbs. Republicans still are having problem in the suburbs and it may actually be getting worse for them. The Alabama Supreme Court effectively banned IVF by ruling in February that embryos were children and protected by law. The Democrat ran hard on abortion and protecting IVF, the latter of which is supported by 80-90% of Alabamians. Pretty clear that was an effective message and Dobbs is still relevant to voters. She did better against a normal Republican than AL Dem Senator Doug Jones did in the 2017 special against Republican Roy Moore who is banned from malls and tried to rape minor girls.

Here it is:

Then the visual 2 old guys part doesn’t fit. Saruman built an army too and is trying to destroy Middle Earth. I agree overall Sauron is a better fit for being Trump, but you don’t see how old he is, which makes the meme less visually powerful then you seeing 2 old guys as the choice before Americans.

If I absolutely had to call it, I’d say Biden wins the presidency, Democrats win the House and Republicans win the Senate. As far as the Electoral Vote for Biden goes, he wins NV, MI, PA and WI while Trump wins AZ and GA for a 276-262 victory. But I like being cautious. This is where I think it sits if an election were held today. After his criminal trials and/or convictions taking him out of running a campaign like fundraising and meeting voters, billions of dollars spent by Democrats on ads about abortion, the economy and how Republicans don’t want to fix any problems, I expect 2020 Biden + NC to be the end result. Or a 319-219 victory. This thread is meant to be about elections only, but sometimes discussion about issues occurs too. You and me both, the Democratic bench in the country is insanely strong compared to just less than a decade ago and the Republican bench has been severely weakened if not wiped out. From Governors to Senators, the list is very long and the party is in great hands for the future. There’s a large contingency of talent ready to takeover (as we’ve already seen happen in the US House with Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn older Dem leadership stepping down from their positions). This will be the last time Democrats nominate an old person for president. That said, I came across a meme on the Musk hellsite that really gets across the 2020 US Election, which I’ll get to in a minute. Everyone keeps saying “why is it a pick between 2 old guys?” when no one is looking at what’s actually been accomplished under either or comparing the two. People are judging the book by its cover and not reading the pages beneath it. Biden has passed into law countless bills to help Americans on healthcare, drug costs, climate change, infrastructure, manufacturing, veterans, jobs, child poverty, pandemic recovery, small businesses, gun violence, expanding oil production, unemployment, marijuana and unions. Trump managed to pass tax cuts. They’re 2 old guys, but are they really the same? If Biden really was old and senile then how exactly is he one of, if not the most productive presidents in history? And what exactly does it make Republicans who manage to complain Biden is taking them to the shed in negotiations and that he’s old and senile and unfit to lead as president. Well, which is it? Is he a genius leader who outmaneuvers his opposition or a guy who can’t tie his shoelaces? The biggest problem with Biden, which he’s always had in his life, is public speaking with his stutter and misstatements. But behind the scenes where the actual work of a president is done, he’s in tip top shape. As for that meme I mentioned earlier, it only works for those who have watched The Lord of The Rings movies, but if you have: The 2020 election is a choice between 2 people who are both old: Gandalf and Saruman. One is trying to save Middle Earth, the other is trying to destroy it.

Once again you’re confusing two things as one and the same and yet refuse to differentiate between them. Saying both parties use the border for political purposes is absolutely correct. You’re right. That’s the same with every single topic. All sides try to use whatever issue of discussion is for their advantage (this is the most barest of basics in politics and not anything new) as a party. It’s the number one job of any politician or political party anywhere. Saying both sides are at fault for not having a solution to the border right now is completely different and 100 percent (I may be undershooting it a bit honestly) a false conclusion that is an end result because it doesn’t involve the person thinking it to spend one second looking at what actually happened on a political topic. You can always be cynical and revert to just say “both sides always suck and this is a problem that isn’t solved so it’s both sides fault” on everything. That is indeed easy and lazy thinking whereas it takes more time and effort to actually dive into the legislating end of things where bills are created and processes take place that determine laws. If you don’t want to do that, that’s fine, but I’m going to push back if you insist on arguing against someone who actually does follow this very closely. Have you once looked at the border bill compromise deal agreement and what it entailed? Did you know it funded ICE (noted Dem boogeyman) with an increase in resources? Did you know it hired more border patrol agents? Did you know it made it harder to claim refugee status? Did you know it hired more immigration judges to clear out the backlog of claims and lessen the number of catch and release undocumented immigrants? Do you disagree with any of these things? Did you know more Democrats than Republicans voted for it in the Senate? Did you know the Senate GOP blocked their own border deal they negotiated? Did you know Dem Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries supports it and GOP majority leader Mike Johnson doesn’t and refuses to bring it up for a vote? Did you know moderate Republicans refuse to sign a discharge petition to force a vote on a bill that would pass by a large majority? Did you know Biden supports it and Trump doesn’t? These are just a sliver of the things that if you don’t actually know happened will lead you to your false conclusion that both sides are at fault. Democrats share some of the blame here as with almost all problems in the US (it’s rarely ever 1 sided), BUT it’s not at an equal level to Republicans on this current problem. A border bill compromise that far more Democrats than Republicans support. Because when you say it’s both sides at fault for a problem, when it’s more like 75-25 or 66-33, you’re essentially not assigning proper blame amounts and giving one side a pass and the other a penalty which leads you to, yes, a false conclusion. If you don’t believe me, take a minute and read what David Brooks has to say on why the GOP is to blame on this, not Democrats and what has become of his party. This is coming from a hardcore “Democrat” who wrote pieces like this frequently, who is obviously a partisan hack in the tank for the Dems. Here’s a free link to read it in its entirety. https://archive.ph/uLsg9 Brooks: Democrats must confront their privilege By David Brooks The New York Times OPINION DAVID BROOKS Trump Came for Their Party but Took Over Their Souls This wasn’t just about Republicans cynically bending their knee to Trump. Rather, I’m convinced that Trumpism now pervades the deepest recesses of their minds and governs their unconscious assumptions. Their fundamental mental instincts are no longer conservative, but Trumpian. Here are some of the convictions that Republicans had to assent to in order to do what they did this week: Democracy is for suckers. Entertainment over governance. Foreigners don’t matter. Lying is normal. America would be better off in a post-American world.

100% completely anecdotal, so don’t take any of this to the bank and bet your house. A truckload of salt is warranted, because voters are freaking weird (I mean it, you’d bang your head against the wall if you listened in to focus groups on undecided/swing voters and what they think) and make their decisions for all sorts of reasons (most of which we never hear about) based on the candidates, a coin flip, timing, whatever issue is in their head that day etc, but there’s at least some evidence of this happening. At least as far as NY03 is concerned.

Ok, now with that out of the way, it’s special elections night again! Polls and most pundits had this race as a tossup, but it looks like that same anti-GOP coalition I sound like a broken record talking about, showed up again with D’s, I’s and moderate R’s voting Democratic. This was the seat held by Republican George Santos who was expelled after being exposed to have lied about, well, everything. He won by 8 in 2022. Biden won here by 8 in 2020. The final margin is yet to be determined, but looking like a high single digit victory for Democrat Tom Suozzi who repped this district from 2016-2022. This is a flip red to blue and makes the already incalcitrant GOP majority even smaller to wrangle. His opponent was a black ethiopian Jewish immigrant former IDF (Israel) fighter who won local office in the Nassau County legislature and is a registered Democrat. Next we have a suburban Pennsylvania state house district. Democrats invested money here, Republicans did not and it’s very evident in the results. This was a seat held by Dems that will stay Dem. It gives a 102-101 majority back in the State House which Dems flipped in 2022. Had GOP won here, they would have flipped control. Finally, as usual, Oklahoma Democrats punch above their weight in yet another special election. Aided a bit by a Libertarian candidate, but even if all those voters went to the Republican, Democrats still would have overperformed. And that’s it for tonight! Have a great evening all!

Republicans killed the border bill deal negotiated by the noted “moderate” Oklahoma Senator after demanding the border should be included with foreign aid to Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine and Democrats caved on a lot of what the GOP wanted. Noted Democratic supporter David Brooks (he’s been an American conservative analyst for many decades) even took Republicans to task in an op-ed blaming them for stopping the bill. The stripped down foreign aid only bill passed the Senate with a 70-29 vote. 48/51 Democrats and only 22/48 Republicans supported it. The GOP House speaker Mike Johnson refuses to take it up and moderate Republicans in the House refuse to sign on to a discharge petition to force a vote despite the fact it would likely pass with a large majority. Republicans now after months of screaming about the border crisis are saying there’s no need to do anything on the border, because they want it as a political issue to use in November. That the border should be decided in November by voters. Kind of like them saying a lawful Supreme Court Justice appointment should be decided by voters in November when the GOP blocked Obama from nominating Garland. Saying it’s both sides fault equally that there’s no funding or bill to deal with the border without actually looking at what’s actually happening in the US lawmaker chambers is easy and lazy thinking. It’s fine if you don’t pay attention enough to know all this, after all Canada is our country, but don’t go commenting or explaining things about another country if you don’t follow the intricacies and inner workings of it, otherwise you will be lead to false conclusions.

Another Dem overperformance for the first special election of 2024.

That’s not a basic question, like, at all lol. I could spend 10 pages of comments here going over everything and still not make a dent. There’s thousands of far more experienced political analysts working on the answer to those questions and even they don’t know. There’s dozens of various factors that are effecting the elections upcoming that we know of now and many more to come in the next year we’ve never heard of yet. That said, I’ll do my best to give a basic overview and reasons behind it. In short: Presidential race is Tossup, House is Tossup (but Tilt D if a certain outcome in NY happens), Senate is Lean R (but Tossup IF 2 certain Republicans get nominated). If that sounds strange, welcome to hyperpolarized politics where nothing could ever move a voter from their preferred party. 85-90% of voters are locked in before anyone decides to run and before any campaign begins. Where I think it ends up? President: 2020 Biden + NC, House: Tilt D, Senate: Tossup. President: If I had to predict right now I’d say a 276-262 Biden victory with him winning MI/NV/PA/WI. Trump wins AZ/GA/NC. Those are the 7 states that are going to be battlegrounds in 2024. Michigan has a very popular Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer and a large suburban population, which has been trending away from Republicans since 2016. The state party has competent leadership and flipped the state to a trifecta for Democrats for the first time in 40 years in 2022. It also has a GOP party so divided they regularly get into actual fist fights with each other needing police called. Conspiracy theorist Kristina Karamo leads the state party which is broke. Lean D Trends in Nevada are bad for Democrats and many have it flipping to Trump, but they have two aces up their sleeve there that has been the difference maker and I expect will do so again. Tilt D. First it has the Harry Reid Machine still kicking. Harry Reid is regarded as a Democratic Jesus in Nevada due to his vaunted political machine there. When Republicans netted 6 Senate seats, 6 Governorships and 63 House seats in the 2010 red tsunami, Dem Senator Harry Reid from Nevada miraculously survived by 6 points. The Berniecrats took over the state party and created a mess badly, so Democrats ran shadow operation campaigns in 2022, but they have now been kicked out of power once again leaving the party in The Reid Machine’s hands. Second it has The Culinary Union. It’s a labor organization representing 60,000 members working for the various restaurants, hotels, laundries and casinos in Las Vegas. They have a vast volunteer army to knock doors for Democrats every cycle and it pays off hugely. Take, for example last year’s Senate race in 2022. Not only did they secure thousands of votes that needed verification to count after the election was held, but they were instrumental in turning a Trump +5 voting electorate into a D+1 Senate vote. Pennsylvania has an extremely popular Governor Josh Shapiro to boost Democrats and the 2023 elections in November showed disaster for Republicans in the suburbs. Here, it’s a bit different, there isn’t a superstar Dem state party or a whacko GOP state party, but the rurals are now completely maxed out for Republicans, which makes any shifts to Democrats elsewhere very difficult to offset. Suburban former GOP stronghold counties flipped in 2023 for the Democratic Supreme Court nominee as well as local offices. Longtime GOP strategists were panicked and blunt: “If these 2023 trends show again in 2024, it’ll be nearly impossible for Republicans to win”. I expect they are right and these will show up as the suburbs have moved left every cycle since 2016 except the 2021 red wave. Wisconsin has only elected a Republican statewide in a D vs R race 4 times since 2016, Democrats have won 13 times. Tilt D. Ben Wikler has done a phenomenal job as the former MoveOn director now state party chair. He’s turned the state party into a fundraising juggernaut, raising tens of millions for Democrats with creative and unique fundraising drives like getting all former cast members of The Princess Bride together for an online meet and greet. The biggest problem for Republicans in the state though are 3 counties: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, commonly referred to as the WOW. They’re literally where the GOP was born in the state and had been resistant to the leftward shift in other suburban areas. Not anymore. In the 2023 State Supreme Court election if you removed the votes from either Milwaukee or Dane County (Madison) where Democrats get huge margins and votes from, Republicans still would have lost that race. Congress: Republicans have gerrymandered North Carolina after winning control of the State Supreme Court overruling a past ruling the court made under Democrats in 2022, netting them 3 seats. Democrats will gain 1 seat in Alabama and likely another in Louisiana making the net gains almost break even before a vote is cast. However, if the newly progressive State Supreme Court sided with Democrats after a redraw process has been ordered, Democrats could net 6-7 seats in NY, which would make them the slight favorites to flip it. Way too many seats to go over, but problematic R nominees are running again potentially keeping winnable districts off the board for them even if NY doesn’t allow a gerrymander. Tossup for now. Senate: The fact Democrats even have any chance at all to hold the Senate is emblematic of the consistent problems Republicans have had nominating electable mainstream candidates. If they don’t nominate Matt Rosendale in Montana and/or Bernie Moreno in Ohio, they’re favored to flip the Senate. Dem Senator Brown and Dem Senator Tester are strong incumbents, but this may be finally the year that polarization catches up to them in their Trump voting states. If they do, however nominate those two, it’s a pure Tossup for control. Republicans have already picked up 1 seat with Dem Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia retiring. They need 1 more or for Trump to win to have control. The other states of MI, NV, PA and WI have Dems favored with strong incumbents/candidates and/or potentially bad GOP challengers to make them favored to hold them. Arizona Democrat turned Independent Senator Sinema hasn’t decided whether to run for re-election or not and once again Republicans are nominating a candidate who is still relitigating the 2022 election as the real Governor of Arizona Kari Lake in the courts. Dems will nominate Ruben Gallego a progressive Marine Latino veteran. A pure Tossup race regardless of what Sinema decides. Control of the Senate, Lean R for now. In case people think this is far too long of a post, this is the smallest, most abridged version I can make. I never even went into what would/could affect these races (economy, inflation, gas prices, retirements, abortion, guns, crime, foreign policy, border etc.) or any Congress seats, so yes, this is the short version.

Apologies, I’m usually only online for special election nights and there usually isn’t any during the holidays in the US. What would you like to know?

Next is HUGE. Major, major ramifications for control of the House in 2024. Long story short: Democrats are picking up more seats before a single ballot is cast. This process has been a clusterfuck to say the least, but I’ll try to be as succinct as possible to help everyone understand. In 2014 voters passed a constitutional amendment for an independent redistricting committee with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans. Predictably when drawing the maps they deadlocked, sent both R and D created maps to legislature, which also predictably rejected them. They refused as required by the amendment passed to draw a 2nd set of maps. Legislative Democrats then redrew the maps to gerrymander themselves a 23-3 (D seats-R seats) safe map save for landslide wave elections. Republicans predictably filed a lawsuit in a friendly county with a GOP judge who ordered a redraw and appointed a Republican leaning “independent” map drawer. Democrats appealed. The top Court (Court of Appeals) at this time ruled 4-3 in favor of the GOP and the map stayed for 2022, giving them (after 2022 elections) 11 seats (R’s had a 222-213 majority or 4 seats). This decision cost Democrats the House majority, without question. The deciding vote conservative Democrat Janet DiFiore retired in 2022 after this decision. NY legislative Democrats then had a fight over Hector LaSalle a judge in the mold of DiFiore. Obviously Democrats were worried how he’d rule on their priorities and blocked Dem Gov Hochul from appointing him, for the first time in history. They could only do this btw because of less than 500 votes out of 150k cast in 2022 from Dems winning those 2 seats because a 2/3 majority is required to overrule a governor and Dems have a 42-21 majority in NY State Senate. Another judge retired and now Democrats replaced those 2 with more to the left judges. Democrats filed a lawsuit correctly arguing the commission didn’t follow the law and they needed to redraw the maps. One of the judges to hear this case (Halligan) recused from it and Diane Renwick a progressive replaced her, all, but guaranteeing a successful lawsuit for Dems. Today, as expected, the court ruled in favor of Democrats. This process now starts over again with the commission needing bipartisan approved maps or sending both R and D maps for legislature to accept/reject. If this happens twice, legislative Democrats will redraw. It is likely that Republicans will file another lawsuit and it’s unclear whether Halligan (considered a swing vote) will hear that to be announced inevitable case or if it will even reach the high court, let alone if the map will stand for 2024. No matter how this ends up though in the end, Republicans will lose seats, the question is just how many. With a House majority down now to 3 seats after the GOP expelled Santos and NC R Court overturning the nonpartisan maps there after they took control, this decision could be the single deciding factor in which party controls the House.

Couple things for tonight. I’ll put it in separate posts though. First off yet another special election result (almost every Tuesday somewhere in America folks!). Republicans won this district 67-33 in 2022.

Just dropping in for another special election night. This one with VERY unexpected results in an VERY unexpected area. Cuban Americans have been bolting away from the Democratic Party since they voted for Hillary Clinton. So much so that Miami-Dade a once bedrock Dem county was won by Republican Governor DeSantis by 11 points for 2022 in his 19 point statewide landslide victory. This district is entirely contained in Miami-Dade. The seat is 86% Hispanic. The Republican raised $262k. The Democrat raised $105k. This was the result tonight. To give a comparison, if Democrats overperformed the same tonight in the state house shift from 2022 to 2023 as they did for Congressional races from 2022 to 2024 they would have a 342-93 House Majority.