Sp3nny

Feel pretty good about calling this a while back.

All good, I get it. I did see the reply earlier. For the sake of clarity and honesty, I’m not old enough to have watched early Gretzky, but I was able to watch a lot of 90’s and 00’s hockey and have been avid to this day. Enough to know all about the stars of the day and what was going on with “dead puck” at the time. But from your posts, it seems you have even more experience with it than me, which is great. Just to conclude my thought, and I don’t expect a reply to this, my post earlier was more a deep dive into exactly what the numbers show vs what I myself or others perceive. For instance, you specifically mentioned 92/93 as when bigger stars were complaining about dead puck, and yet that season had a 3.64 goals per game, much more than anything in the modern era (05+) which I definitely wouldn’t have guessed or known. Yes, the trap was in full effect and coupled with no two-line pass, the neutral zone was hell. The league is creeping back up over 3 goals per game now, and wouldn’t you know it McDavid crosses the 150 barrier for the first time in forever. The three players I would love to see play today are Mario, Bure and Lindros. Special talents that were ahead of their time and careers were cut short. Anyways enough about the past, let’s see how Ovi closes out the season. I’m rooting for him, others may not be. If he wants the record, he definitely has to train seriously this offseason.

I think it’s interesting how we view the dead puck era. Visually it was quite obvious it affected scoring, and statistically it did as well, but it’s almost identical to modern era scoring. This is more likely a case of teams learning defensive structure from newfound strategies as well as a major advancement in goaltending from a modern point of view, and the average player now is much better now than 30 yrs ago IMO. But my point is, we seem to always talk about the dead puck era like it was deprived of all scoring, when in reality it wasn’t rly any lower scoring than the NHL of the last 20 yrs. Your bang on with the play style in dead puck, if you go back and watch games now it seems like a different sport. The stick work was crazy, the structure was evident but rudimentary, and you had to be tough as nails to survive. I was recently watching some Lindros highlights and you forget how much of an animal that guy was. I’ve always felt he held one of the greatest presence on the ice, just a truly formidable opponent. He didn’t do himself any favors with how physical and nasty he himself was, and it put a pretty big target on his back unfortunately. Statistically though, the dead puck era scoring was lowest in the early 2000’s. As a whole, Gretzky enjoyed an NHL that averaged 3.49 G/PG and a peak of 4.01. Ovechkin’s era has averaged 2.9 G/PG with a peak of 3.18. Interestingly, Gretzky’s era also averaged 4.5 PP/G whereas Ovi has averaged 3.34 PP/G. Lots of interesting numbers listed here (https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html) and ones I hadn’t rly compared from 79-24. For me personally, it just solidifies Ovi as a truly special talent as a goal scorer. It also rly exemplifies the NHL’s reasoning to getting back to higher scoring hockey to me. I think we normally point to the dead puck era as the worst time, and while visually the hockey is much better now, especially the high end skill that is being adopted, the scoring hey day has never rly returned. We are just now starting to see some big numbers put up again which is very exciting. Great convo fellas, fun going down memory lane a bit.

I agree with you wholeheartedly, and I wasn’t trying to paint Gretzky in a bad light, the guy was still putting up 100 pt seasons which is insane. I was just thinking of how we can interpret the “shadow of his former self” as a statement more than anything. Is a shadow of Gretzky’s former self the fact of scoring 90 points when in the past he scored 90 goals? I guess it just shows how amazing prime Gretzky was, but it also demonstrates a severe drop off from peak, while still being incredible. I think the thing that impresses me more than anything can be summed up in your last statement as well. Gretzky provided that 70-90 goals in four out of twenty seasons. Ovi has provided those 40-55 in 11 of 17 without accounting for shortened seasons. Taking those in, it could be argued to be 13 of 17 and maybe even 14 of 18 considering he missed the entirety of his potential rookie yr. Gretzky “only” broke 40 goals eight times in his career, but those times the numbers were gaudy. Once again, it doesn’t take away from Gretzky’s peak or overall greatness, it just shows how consistently great Ovi has been througout his career. The guy entered the league a 50 goal scorer just as Wayne did and has maintained it just the same or even more so.

Well since we are picking apart stats and doing player comparisons, let’s dive into the “Great One” and how he finished his career. Gretzky’s last five seasons he averaged 19.8 goals a season and was a minus player in 4 out of 5 seasons, all while playing top line minutes (this actually wasn’t tracked until the last two seasons, in which he still averaged 21 mins a night). Let that sink in for a minute. He was a shadow of his former self. Even with this being a terrible season, Ovi is still pacing for more goals than Gretzky’s last five seasons. Do we compare Gretzky to the “fourth liners” who had better seasons at the time? No, we just care about the body of work overall, and how great he truly was. He is the greatest player of all time, and nobody can take that from him. But the fact that a player has a chance to break his goals record is nothing short of monumental. No, Ovi isn’t better than Gretzky. Like you say, he has always been a volume shooter with an incredible shot. Not much has changed about that to this day, he’s just not getting the puck as frequently or shooting as often. He’s playing on the one of the worst Caps teams of his career (scoring wise on pace for their 3rd lowest goal total since Ovi has been around), shooting his career worst % wise, and his age is definitely catching up to him. But, he’s shot 8% before in 2011 and “only” scored 32. He followed it up by returning to his normal shooting % of 12.5 the next season. I don’t see why that couldn’t happen again. And even if it doesn’t, if he plays another five yrs averaging 20 goals as Gretzky did, is it rly all that different? Sure, Gretzky still put up more points, but this isn’t a points discussion. Saying Ovi should immediately retire after his lowest goal scoring season seems a bit much. Gretzky didn’t hang them up until he couldn’t crack the double digit barrier. I think the hero worship of him should pick up a bit. Peak Ovi was an absolute freak of nature with much more than just a shot. His speed and raw power made him nearly unstoppable. But by far, his shot is his greatest asset. Everyone knows where he stands, everyone knows to cover him, the goalies know the shot is coming, and time and again he puts the puck in the net. We are talking about a player breaking a nearly untouchable record. I think too many view it as a disservice to Wayne, rather than the incredible feat that it is. Look at prime Matthew’s right now. He’s is actually pacing better than Ovi on a G/GP basis, so he technically has a shot at it. If I were to tell you that Matthew's would also break Gretzky’s record, would you believe it? He has to average 41.6 goals over the next 12 yrs just to match pace perfectly with Ovi at the same age. Unfortunately, he has actually only scored more than 42 goals three times in his eight yrs in the league because of injuries/shortened seasons. Can he honestly do it? Maybe, maybe not; but it’s a very steep hill to climb. Ovi has already climbed 93% of that hill, which is astonishing. Even if he doesn’t get there, what Ovi has done should be regarded as the truly elite of goal scorers. What he has done for the modern NHL is astounding, and I am all for it. It doesn’t take away from Gretzky’s legacy, it builds on it.

I could see 2 for boarding, but I’m also ok with no call. It was borderline. Ty Nelson had a major called for kneeing get completely overturned to nothing in game 1 vs Latvia. As much as I hate stoppages, it’s refreshing to see them try and get the right call, and I’ve agreed with each review personally.

Over/under 30 goals for Ovi. Who’s taking what? I’m in the over camp. Anyone saying his shot is done, your shot is about the one thing you almost never lose. Al Maccinis just blasted 100.4mph at 56 yrs old when the Blues brought him out at the all star game in 2020. You can lose accuracy which will hurt, but Ovi has always been a volume shooter with the power to go through goalies. He just went through the longest goal slump of his career, and his shooting % is way below average. People thought he was done the yr he scored 35 too. All this means is he only has regression to the averages in store, which means more goals in store. Has he lost a step and can’t get to scoring positions? I think so. And the Caps are also the worst they have been in a long time, without a proper playmaker to get him the puck as consistently. But as we have seen time and again, he can stand still in his spot on the PP and score 30 quite easily. I still think he gets the record.

I picked up Cairdeas and Basil Hayden Red Wine this morning. Wasn’t overly impressed with the release this year.

Blankenburg would be a nice add if cheap. Watched a lot of him at Michigan and now CBJ and am always impressed. Plays a lot like a more physical Stecher, all heart and compete. Moved the puck quite well too.

Thanks for the hard work in porting everything over!

I won as well. Just picked it up.