I’m superficially educated in this conflict, I won’t pretend otherwise.
Brass Tacks
Israel
- As a small nation surrounded by countries that; at best strongly dislike them, to at worst are actively working to wipe them out, have to, out necessity, be ruthless in the face of all attacks on their country. History has shown the Israeli people that genocide is a tangible threat.
- This can lead to overreach in their response, especially with how it affects civilians.
- They are the only nuclear country in the Middle East, and use this as a bargaining chip with the West, specifically the U.S., to receive the most modern armaments, planes, etc. available. Additionally, they have a strong technology base, with the ability to design and build cutting edge systems themselves.
- The settler movement, strongly supported by the nationalists, has created an extreme level of turmoil and suffering in the Palestinian Territories, directly leading to radicalization of a significant percentage of their population. This has created fertile ground for foreign countries and organizations to exploit.
- the sea blockade of the Palestinian Territories, adds to this pain
- The actual desire by the Israeli government to figure out a 2 state solution is dubious at best.
Palestinians
- Feel a strong resentment against the way Israel was created, exacerbated by Israel’s refusal to return property and territory after wars, starting with the 1948 Arab- Israel war. Leading to the Palestinian refugee problem.
- historically has had strong support from both neighbouring countries and organizations, leading to continuous proxy wars and skirmishes.
- see the settler movement as a continuation of a policy of Annexation
- live under oppression in the occupied territories.
- have a strong radical element, strongly influenced by Israeli policy
possible end games
The 2 state solution (highly unlikely)
- It would require Israel to remove established settlements and perhaps cede some additional territory
- would require a strong reversal of Palestinian sentiment with regards to Israel
- would require enormous amounts of outside aid to rebuild a functioning society, including the overturning of Hammas from government
Single state solution
- Also highly unlikely, as the it would be nearly impossible to incorporate the Palestinian peoples into a single state with Israel
- possible if Israel displaces the majority of Palestinians from the territory.
Status Quo
- the most likely outcome, with some form of cease fire
- not a permanent solution as Israel seems to have no intention of stopping continued settlement and Palestinians have no reason to stop violently responding.
So what am I missing?
what other options make sense?