Canucks Playoff Odds - Celebrating for Celebrini

[Provost]

Well it looks like we aren't likely to be obsessively refreshing the draft simulator from March onwards this year!  We may need to hold on to celebrating for Celebrini for seven years when he is a UFA and joins Bedard in coming to play for his hometown team 

We have passed the 1/4 of the season marker where the odds become less volatile and mean more.  The main odds sites have the Canucks averaging solidly above 80% chance at the playoffs.

Money Puck 89.5%
Playoff Status 77%
Power Rankings Guru 88.3%
The Athletic 95%
Hockey Reference 94.1%
Oddschecker 81.1%

The pre-season odds ranged from the 30-50% range, so the hot start has made a significant improvement even with the recent slowdown.  One caveat is that it is harder to predict making the playoffs than it is missing the playoffs.  Making the playoffs is more subject to "special cause variation" for things like injuries.  A team with Quinn Hughes isn't the same team without him, so projections go completely out the window.  The reverse rarely happens as bottom feeders don't tend to add significant pieces midseason, an exception was St. Louis when they went from worst to first because they had a Vezina calibre Binnington drop from the sky halfway through the season... and a coaching change helped a lot too.

If the team stays as healthy as the teams around them, it is highly probably that the Canucks make the playoffs this year.  It isn't a sure thing as the team will still need about 65-67 points in 60 games, but with loser points that isn't as hard as it sounds.  It gets easier if division rivals decide to retool or rebuild and effectively give up on the season.  We have a weak division that may only get weaker.

The question posed by this thread, like it is every year... is what do these odds mean in terms of what the Canucks should do for organizational moves.  In past years when we were already looking like a faint hope, it meant considering whether to move out pieces for futures.  This year the question is how "all in" should the team go to solidify a really good chance at making the playoffs?

A couple of injuries has shown that the D needs improvement still.  Riding Hughes and Hronek almost 30 minutes a night seems like a recipe for a bit of a disaster.  The coach doesn't have a lot of choice when your other pairing options include guys like Juulsen, Hirose, Myers, and Friedman.  You can admire their moxxy... but they aren't reliable NHL calibre D if you have aspirations of being in, and having success in the playoffs.  That may be a little unfair to Myers, he is a fine 3rd pairing D if you shelter him a little and don't ask too much of him.  Even if you add Bear, there is still a need for a top four guy to pair with Cole for a steady minute munching duo to take the strain off the top pairing (or even let them get split up).

The bottom six has started to contribute, but could maybe use a little more.  That could also be accomplished by adding a top six guy who pushes someone like Di Giuseppe down the lineup.  Kuzmenko is having a sophomore slump, but he can still bounce back and help out a lot.  He seems to have the right attitude for it.  Does the Kessel rumour have any merit?  He seems like he isn't a fit, but the dude wins everywhere.  He wouldn't cost anything except what it would take to make room for the contract.

What would be the cost of adds like this and what are the untouchable assets?  How much is making the playoffs and even maybe winning a round or two worth to the team right now.  Petterson and Hronek might shave off half a million or so each off their extensions if they think our team is likely a winner for the next few years.  That is worth something for sure and maybe tilts the balance in favour of making some bolder moves.  It seems like the Canucks brass see it this way too (of course with our team history and ownership, maybe they would have the same attitude if we had a 15% chance of the playoffs at this point).  It is also way easier to sign UFAs to value deals if they think they have a chance at the Cup.  There are always decent veteran guys available each summer to fill holes in the bottom half of the lineup on reasonable deals, and they want a chance as much or more than they want the biggest dollars.  Cole is a good example, he is easily our 3rd best D even with everyone healthy and he was convinced to come here without spending a ton in cap or term.  If we win a couple rounds in the playoffs there will be similar level guys happy to come onboard a team they see as having an upwards trajectory.

On my list of untouchables in terms of futures, mainly because of the need for cheap ELC contracts to hold a window open as expensive extensions kick in are:
Willander - he is the type of player we keep spending assets trying to find.  He has the profile of a player that would fit the style the Canucks want to play under Tocchet
Any unprotected 1st round pick - our pipeline needs help for guys that are likely in the top half of the roster.  Losing out on adding those guys makes it too hard to sustain success

Mostly untouchable, like it would take a young, cost controlled top 4D to think about moving these assets:
Lekkerimaki - He is gaining steam and looking better, but he is also a winger so that just doesn't have as much value and tend to be easier to find on the market.  Is he a 30 goal guy or is he a middle six guy that can be found as a UFA pick up or trade.  Take Toffoli for instance, he is an excellent player who does well wherever he goes but he keeps getting moved and doesn't make the big bucks. 
Top Ten Protected 1st round pick - for the right player, I think we could take a swing as big as this one.  The odds of a guy picked in the 20's isn't that different from a guy in the 2nd round.  They will all be projects that are years from being significant NHLers (if ever).
Brzustewicz - Close to untouchable, but hey anyone is tradeable at the right price.  You can really see the possibility of an excellent future D core if he and Willander keep progressing and add them to Hughes and Hronek in 2-4 years.  Of course, as with any prospect there are still lots of questions and many don't pan out.

Trade Bait:
Silovs - He is still an excellent prospect, but he is also a bit of a luxury.  So many teams are having goaltending issues that the goalie market could be better now than it has been for years.
Raty - Not sure how much value he has still, but he doesn't seem like a fit for the team.  We need more speed, not less.  
All other prospects - None are likely game breakers, some are nice pieces... but you have to give up something to get something.
Later Picks - 2nd and 3rd round picks do hold value so would need a return in terms of creating cap space or as part of a package to land a quality player.  Anything after the 3rd round I really don't care about.  We haven't mined much gold from those picks, and they tend to have more value on the market than they are really worth.  They are the sweeteners you use to make deals.



 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Provost

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

Good thing the Oilers, Flames and Wild all suck.

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

Also, it's good that we're getting some much needed rest these next couple days. The schedule has been brutal of late...

 

It's the quarter mark and we're 5th in the league. Very hard to find anything of significance to complain about. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Herberts Vasiljevs

[Provost]

1 minute ago, Herberts Vasiljevs said:

Also, it's good that we're getting some much needed rest these next couple days. The schedule has been brutal of late...

 

It's the quarter mark and we're 5th in the league. Very hard to find anything of significance to complain about. 

8th in the league and 6th in the West if you consider winning percentage because we have played more games than most teams.  Still not a lot to complain about, especially when coming from being a bottom feeder for the last several years.

Even with most of the bounces going our way, we are still below teams like LA, Vegas, Colorado, Winnipeg, and Dallas... all teams we would have to face in the playoffs if we make it that far.  We would be in tough in any series against these guys and our roster still has work to do in order to be a favourite when facing any of them.  We are a top heavy lineup which hurts more in the playoffs because a team can just lean on those guys to shut them down and wear them down.  More depth, more size, more grit, more secondary scoring... all adds to make to move from being a playoff team to being a real contender.

[Ghostsof1915]

If Bz is untouchable, Willander is laugh and hang up the phone untouchable.

I'd also wouldn't give up on Mynio, Alriksson, or Celebrini.

 

 

[Mackcanuck]

2 hours ago, Herberts Vasiljevs said:

Also, it's good that we're getting some much needed rest these next couple days. The schedule has been brutal of late...

 

It's the quarter mark and we're 5th in the league. Very hard to find anything of significance to complain about. 

 

Our schedule is improving now

We have 1 road game (CGY) in the next 20 days And no back to backs until January 8th in NYC (NYR  - NYI)

Edited November 26, 2023 by Mackcanuck

[Dom]

4 minutes ago, Mackcanuck said:

 

Our schedule is improving now

We have 1 road game (CGY) in the next 20 days And no back to backs until January 8th in NYC (NYR  - NYI)

7 road games in 11 days in JAN.. have to play lights out in DEC & I personally don't see it happening 

[-dlc-]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

8th in the league and 6th in the West if you consider winning percentage because we have played more games than most teams.  

Don't try to change the facts....facts are, the standings are posted for everyone to see and this other stuff with an asterisk doesn't matter.

 

 

[Provost]

15 minutes ago, -dlc- said:

Don't try to change the facts....facts are, the standings are posted for everyone to see and this other stuff with an asterisk doesn't matter.

 

 

What a silly post… I stated a salient fact.   Facts don’t care about your feelings.  It doesn’t matter if it makes you feel better to pretend that other teams having games in hand and a better winning record doesn’t count in your eyes.
 

I am not sure if this comes as a surprise… but by the end of the season, they don’t let some teams play several more games than other teams.  That isn’t an “asterisk”… it is just true.
 

Winning percentage is a more accurate way to look at standings.  

 

[John.Tallhouse]

[-dlc-]

10 minutes ago, Provost said:

What a silly post… I stated a salient fact.   Facts don’t care about your feelings.  It doesn’t matter if it makes you feel better to pretend that other teams having games in hand and a better winning record doesn’t count in your eyes.
 

I am not sure if this comes as a surprise… but by the end of the season, they don’t let some teams play several more games than other teams.  That isn’t an “asterisk”… it is just true.
 

Winning percentage is a more accurate way to look at standings.  

 

I tend to go to the NHL and look there to see the standings/facts.

 

At the end of the season I'll do the same.

 

But thanks for trying to change it.

[Provost]

21 minutes ago, -dlc- said:

I tend to go to the NHL and look there to see the standings/facts.

 

At the end of the season I'll do the same.

 

But thanks for trying to change it.

Look,  I went to the NHL page for the standings too.  It shows us in 8th place 

 

Weird how they would put a whole column for winning percentage if it was a made up thing and not a fact.

 

 

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

3 minutes ago, Provost said:

Look,  I went to the NHL page for the standings too.  It shows us in 8th place 

 

Weird how they would put a whole column for winning percentage if it was a made up thing and not a fact.

 

 

Well, 8th in winning %. I'll still take that at the quarter mark. Let's not quibble, eh?!

 

Go Canucks Go!!!!!!

[Provost]

3 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

If Bz is untouchable, Willander is laugh and hang up the phone untouchable.

I'd also wouldn't give up on Mynio, Alriksson, or Celebrini.

 

 

I actually listed Willander as the only purely untouchable prospect in the organization.

 

Brzustewicz was in the “near untouchable” category with Lekkerimaki.  Guys that there probably isn’t trade value to be had… but could be moved if exactly the right player was coming back.

 

Saying guys are tradable isn’t giving up on them, it just acknowledges that to make trades you also have to give up something.  Alriksson is near the top of the list of guys you want to keep, but he is also a guy that other teams might value a lot. He could be enjoying the Virtanen effect by simply being so much bigger and stronger than his opposition that it makes him look better than he is.

[HKSR]

 

 

[IBatch]

On 11/26/2023 at 8:56 PM, Provost said:

Look,  I went to the NHL page for the standings too.  It shows us in 8th place 

 

Weird how they would put a whole column for winning percentage if it was a made up thing and not a fact.

 

 

Deb is right though.   Do you really think the teams we've played more games then, will win every game?    Tie breakers start with points.   Then go from there.    Winning percentage goes up or down depending on wining 1, 2 or 3 of those games.   Vegas slid.  Other teams are sliding, while others are moving up.    On this page, both DAL and WNP have to win all 3 games to better their winning percentage or at least two and a loser point.    As far as tie breakers go, what is the order? 

 

Funny thing, WNP is now below the Canucks.   They lost.   So we went up.  

 

They do it by points first, even in the regular season.   If two teams are tied in the regular season, then they go to who had the fewer games, or winning percentage.   Then RW and ROW something the Canucks are tops in the league right now.   We aren't going to OT and bolstering our winning percentage on OTW and OTL and shootouts much so far  (like previous seasons).    We are currently 6th in standings, 7th in winning percentage, 2nd in RW and 3rd in ROW.    The latter matters when it comes to deciphering points percentage to a degree.    And for sure will matter at the end of the year if we are tied in points.   As could our differential.    Those teams with better winning percentages, some of that is coming from loser points or the 3 x 3, not going to see that in the playoff's thankfully. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by IBatch

[IBatch]

Biggest difference this year, from last year, has to be the GAA.    It's top 3ish overall.   Massive difference to the run and gun style last year, and absolutely goaltending is part of that too.    It's been awhile since we could say that.   Yes goal scoring is up too.   Usually is the first 1/2 of the season and settles down.    Bad luck losing Soucy.    Team for sure needs another cost controlled top four D in the mix.  

 

Good job Provost on the thread.   Nice to see it's not the annual "our odds of making the playoffs are 26% already" or something.    Starting at over 80%, a quarter the way in, a lot to be happy about and cheer for.    This was a tough stretch, teams got a nice home stand.   Going to need it in preparation for the next big challenge, January schedule until the 9 day break at the all-stars.    Right now,  JT Miller, QHs, EP,  Demko and Hronek would be locks to represent the team under the old format. 

[IBatch]

On 11/26/2023 at 3:20 PM, Provost said:

Well it looks like we aren't likely to be obsessively refreshing the draft simulator from March onwards this year!  We may need to hold on to celebrating for Celebrini for seven years when he is a UFA and joins Bedard in coming to play for his hometown team 

We have passed the 1/4 of the season marker where the odds become less volatile and mean more.  The main odds sites have the Canucks averaging solidly above 80% chance at the playoffs.

Money Puck 89.5%
Playoff Status 77%
Power Rankings Guru 88.3%
The Athletic 95%
Hockey Reference 94.1%
Oddschecker 81.1%

The pre-season odds ranged from the 30-50% range, so the hot start has made a significant improvement even with the recent slowdown.  One caveat is that it is harder to predict making the playoffs than it is missing the playoffs.  Making the playoffs is more subject to "special cause variation" for things like injuries.  A team with Quinn Hughes isn't the same team without him, so projections go completely out the window.  The reverse rarely happens as bottom feeders don't tend to add significant pieces midseason, an exception was St. Louis when they went from worst to first because they had a Vezina calibre Binnington drop from the sky halfway through the season... and a coaching change helped a lot too.

If the team stays as healthy as the teams around them, it is highly probably that the Canucks make the playoffs this year.  It isn't a sure thing as the team will still need about 65-67 points in 60 games, but with loser points that isn't as hard as it sounds.  It gets easier if division rivals decide to retool or rebuild and effectively give up on the season.  We have a weak division that may only get weaker.

The question posed by this thread, like it is every year... is what do these odds mean in terms of what the Canucks should do for organizational moves.  In past years when we were already looking like a faint hope, it meant considering whether to move out pieces for futures.  This year the question is how "all in" should the team go to solidify a really good chance at making the playoffs?

A couple of injuries has shown that the D needs improvement still.  Riding Hughes and Hronek almost 30 minutes a night seems like a recipe for a bit of a disaster.  The coach doesn't have a lot of choice when your other pairing options include guys like Juulsen, Hirose, Myers, and Friedman.  You can admire their moxxy... but they aren't reliable NHL calibre D if you have aspirations of being in, and having success in the playoffs.  That may be a little unfair to Myers, he is a fine 3rd pairing D if you shelter him a little and don't ask too much of him.  Even if you add Bear, there is still a need for a top four guy to pair with Cole for a steady minute munching duo to take the strain off the top pairing (or even let them get split up).

The bottom six has started to contribute, but could maybe use a little more.  That could also be accomplished by adding a top six guy who pushes someone like Di Giuseppe down the lineup.  Kuzmenko is having a sophomore slump, but he can still bounce back and help out a lot.  He seems to have the right attitude for it.  Does the Kessel rumour have any merit?  He seems like he isn't a fit, but the dude wins everywhere.  He wouldn't cost anything except what it would take to make room for the contract.

What would be the cost of adds like this and what are the untouchable assets?  How much is making the playoffs and even maybe winning a round or two worth to the team right now.  Petterson and Hronek might shave off half a million or so each off their extensions if they think our team is likely a winner for the next few years.  That is worth something for sure and maybe tilts the balance in favour of making some bolder moves.  It seems like the Canucks brass see it this way too (of course with our team history and ownership, maybe they would have the same attitude if we had a 15% chance of the playoffs at this point).  It is also way easier to sign UFAs to value deals if they think they have a chance at the Cup.  There are always decent veteran guys available each summer to fill holes in the bottom half of the lineup on reasonable deals, and they want a chance as much or more than they want the biggest dollars.  Cole is a good example, he is easily our 3rd best D even with everyone healthy and he was convinced to come here without spending a ton in cap or term.  If we win a couple rounds in the playoffs there will be similar level guys happy to come onboard a team they see as having an upwards trajectory.

On my list of untouchables in terms of futures, mainly because of the need for cheap ELC contracts to hold a window open as expensive extensions kick in are:
Willander - he is the type of player we keep spending assets trying to find.  He has the profile of a player that would fit the style the Canucks want to play under Tocchet
Any unprotected 1st round pick - our pipeline needs help for guys that are likely in the top half of the roster.  Losing out on adding those guys makes it too hard to sustain success

Mostly untouchable, like it would take a young, cost controlled top 4D to think about moving these assets:
Lekkerimaki - He is gaining steam and looking better, but he is also a winger so that just doesn't have as much value and tend to be easier to find on the market.  Is he a 30 goal guy or is he a middle six guy that can be found as a UFA pick up or trade.  Take Toffoli for instance, he is an excellent player who does well wherever he goes but he keeps getting moved and doesn't make the big bucks. 
Top Ten Protected 1st round pick - for the right player, I think we could take a swing as big as this one.  The odds of a guy picked in the 20's isn't that different from a guy in the 2nd round.  They will all be projects that are years from being significant NHLers (if ever).
Brzustewicz - Close to untouchable, but hey anyone is tradeable at the right price.  You can really see the possibility of an excellent future D core if he and Willander keep progressing and add them to Hughes and Hronek in 2-4 years.  Of course, as with any prospect there are still lots of questions and many don't pan out.

Trade Bait:
Silovs - He is still an excellent prospect, but he is also a bit of a luxury.  So many teams are having goaltending issues that the goalie market could be better now than it has been for years.
Raty - Not sure how much value he has still, but he doesn't seem like a fit for the team.  We need more speed, not less.  
All other prospects - None are likely game breakers, some are nice pieces... but you have to give up something to get something.
Later Picks - 2nd and 3rd round picks do hold value so would need a return in terms of creating cap space or as part of a package to land a quality player.  Anything after the 3rd round I really don't care about.  We haven't mined much gold from those picks, and they tend to have more value on the market than they are really worth.  They are the sweeteners you use to make deals.



 

This is a great summation.   Also agree with the list of untouchables.  

 

Our first for sure should be in play, but not for a rental.   That means a player under contract for at least one more season.    Would be great if we could find a top four D, around 25/26 like Miller was, with four years or so on his deal, if we make a trade this season, or 3 on his deal if it's in the off-season.   Would cover us during the peak OEL cap hit years.    
 

Team lacks at least one, but believe given the quality we have at the top end, one more would be enough.    Ideally two.    McDonagh did it for TB, Toews and Manson did it for COL.  

 

We need another top four D.    We likely won't win in free agency.    The way to go is exactly what they just did with Hronek.    Keep going to that well, and we could be champions too.   

 

Funny thing, looking back.    What did the youth provide the Sedin core?   Have to go all the way back to Nonis first draft ... Schneider, Edler, Brown, Hansen.   Then skip way way ahead to Co-Ho.   Than nothing at all.   10 drafts from Schnieder to Horvat.    Point is, that core didn't trade much of any picks really, we traded one first for Ballard.   They managed fine without anything at all really.   

 

Do think this team has the same jam as that one did.   They just haven't put all the cherries ontop yet.   And don't mind if we trade every first until QHs contract is up if that's what it takes to finish things either.    

[spook007]

On 11/26/2023 at 9:07 PM, Provost said:

8th in the league and 6th in the West if you consider winning percentage because we have played more games than most teams.  Still not a lot to complain about, especially when coming from being a bottom feeder for the last several years.
 

Winning percentage is a guessing game... 6 games ago we were close to the top in the league in winning percentage... better a bird in the hand then 2 in the bush kinda a thing...

You'll need to win the games to maintain the standings. With the already discussed tough start to the season, we were always likely to run into a down period.

 

Nevertheless, good write up. I want to hold on to Lekkerimaki as well as Willander, simply because of him being able to enter the team on an ELC, when we pay the piper for OEL... 

Have a feeling the 1st round pick may be in play this year to improve the D, which is a must at some stage... and we need a bigger rugged forward... 

[Jeremy Hronek]

On 11/27/2023 at 4:20 AM, Provost said:

Well it looks like we aren't likely to be obsessively refreshing the draft simulator from March onwards this year!  We may need to hold on to celebrating for Celebrini for seven years when he is a UFA and joins Bedard in coming to play for his hometown team 

We have passed the 1/4 of the season marker where the odds become less volatile and mean more.  The main odds sites have the Canucks averaging solidly above 80% chance at the playoffs.

Money Puck 89.5%
Playoff Status 77%
Power Rankings Guru 88.3%
The Athletic 95%
Hockey Reference 94.1%
Oddschecker 81.1%

The pre-season odds ranged from the 30-50% range, so the hot start has made a significant improvement even with the recent slowdown.  One caveat is that it is harder to predict making the playoffs than it is missing the playoffs.  Making the playoffs is more subject to "special cause variation" for things like injuries.  A team with Quinn Hughes isn't the same team without him, so projections go completely out the window.  The reverse rarely happens as bottom feeders don't tend to add significant pieces midseason, an exception was St. Louis when they went from worst to first because they had a Vezina calibre Binnington drop from the sky halfway through the season... and a coaching change helped a lot too.

If the team stays as healthy as the teams around them, it is highly probably that the Canucks make the playoffs this year.  It isn't a sure thing as the team will still need about 65-67 points in 60 games, but with loser points that isn't as hard as it sounds.  It gets easier if division rivals decide to retool or rebuild and effectively give up on the season.  We have a weak division that may only get weaker.

The question posed by this thread, like it is every year... is what do these odds mean in terms of what the Canucks should do for organizational moves.  In past years when we were already looking like a faint hope, it meant considering whether to move out pieces for futures.  This year the question is how "all in" should the team go to solidify a really good chance at making the playoffs?

A couple of injuries has shown that the D needs improvement still.  Riding Hughes and Hronek almost 30 minutes a night seems like a recipe for a bit of a disaster.  The coach doesn't have a lot of choice when your other pairing options include guys like Juulsen, Hirose, Myers, and Friedman.  You can admire their moxxy... but they aren't reliable NHL calibre D if you have aspirations of being in, and having success in the playoffs.  That may be a little unfair to Myers, he is a fine 3rd pairing D if you shelter him a little and don't ask too much of him.  Even if you add Bear, there is still a need for a top four guy to pair with Cole for a steady minute munching duo to take the strain off the top pairing (or even let them get split up).

The bottom six has started to contribute, but could maybe use a little more.  That could also be accomplished by adding a top six guy who pushes someone like Di Giuseppe down the lineup.  Kuzmenko is having a sophomore slump, but he can still bounce back and help out a lot.  He seems to have the right attitude for it.  Does the Kessel rumour have any merit?  He seems like he isn't a fit, but the dude wins everywhere.  He wouldn't cost anything except what it would take to make room for the contract.

What would be the cost of adds like this and what are the untouchable assets?  How much is making the playoffs and even maybe winning a round or two worth to the team right now.  Petterson and Hronek might shave off half a million or so each off their extensions if they think our team is likely a winner for the next few years.  That is worth something for sure and maybe tilts the balance in favour of making some bolder moves.  It seems like the Canucks brass see it this way too (of course with our team history and ownership, maybe they would have the same attitude if we had a 15% chance of the playoffs at this point).  It is also way easier to sign UFAs to value deals if they think they have a chance at the Cup.  There are always decent veteran guys available each summer to fill holes in the bottom half of the lineup on reasonable deals, and they want a chance as much or more than they want the biggest dollars.  Cole is a good example, he is easily our 3rd best D even with everyone healthy and he was convinced to come here without spending a ton in cap or term.  If we win a couple rounds in the playoffs there will be similar level guys happy to come onboard a team they see as having an upwards trajectory.

On my list of untouchables in terms of futures, mainly because of the need for cheap ELC contracts to hold a window open as expensive extensions kick in are:
Willander - he is the type of player we keep spending assets trying to find.  He has the profile of a player that would fit the style the Canucks want to play under Tocchet
Any unprotected 1st round pick - our pipeline needs help for guys that are likely in the top half of the roster.  Losing out on adding those guys makes it too hard to sustain success

Mostly untouchable, like it would take a young, cost controlled top 4D to think about moving these assets:
Lekkerimaki - He is gaining steam and looking better, but he is also a winger so that just doesn't have as much value and tend to be easier to find on the market.  Is he a 30 goal guy or is he a middle six guy that can be found as a UFA pick up or trade.  Take Toffoli for instance, he is an excellent player who does well wherever he goes but he keeps getting moved and doesn't make the big bucks. 
Top Ten Protected 1st round pick - for the right player, I think we could take a swing as big as this one.  The odds of a guy picked in the 20's isn't that different from a guy in the 2nd round.  They will all be projects that are years from being significant NHLers (if ever).
Brzustewicz - Close to untouchable, but hey anyone is tradeable at the right price.  You can really see the possibility of an excellent future D core if he and Willander keep progressing and add them to Hughes and Hronek in 2-4 years.  Of course, as with any prospect there are still lots of questions and many don't pan out.

Trade Bait:
Silovs - He is still an excellent prospect, but he is also a bit of a luxury.  So many teams are having goaltending issues that the goalie market could be better now than it has been for years.
Raty - Not sure how much value he has still, but he doesn't seem like a fit for the team.  We need more speed, not less.  
All other prospects - None are likely game breakers, some are nice pieces... but you have to give up something to get something.
Later Picks - 2nd and 3rd round picks do hold value so would need a return in terms of creating cap space or as part of a package to land a quality player.  Anything after the 3rd round I really don't care about.  We haven't mined much gold from those picks, and they tend to have more value on the market than they are really worth.  They are the sweeteners you use to make deals.



 

 

Alright Provost, you're off my shit list.  :-p.

 

That's one hell of a post and it's definitely something I can agree with.   :cheers:

 

I disagree with on Silovs - we're going to need him to potentially replace Demko in 3 years.  Demko will be 30 and doesn't exactly have a track record for being durable.  

 

I know this will be 'taboo' to say, but I honestly would consider packaging Willander with Garland in a "hockey deal" to bring in a solid #2A/#3 RHD right now if given the chance. Rasmus Andersson is the guy I have in mind if Calgary decides to be sellers this year.  So not only do you bring a 'win now' piece in Andersson, but you'd also reduce your long term liabilities by getting Garland off the books.....which would ultimately allow us to allocate more term and money towards both  Pettersson and Hronek (7-8 year deals as opposed to the rumoured 3-4 year).  

 

Aside from Willander, I would then keep every single other one of our prospects.  

 

For the future:

 

-Though he's not Willander, Brzustewicz could still end up being that #2A/#3 calibre defenseman for us one day.

-Silovs could possibly replace Demko in the future

-Lekkerimaki potentially replaces one of Boeser or Kuzmenko

-Podkolzin potentially replaces Garland

-Raty potentially replaces Bluegar

 

And so forth.  

 

edit - And to add to this, even if all/most of our young guys don't have the ceiling of Tom Willander, we're already seeing some of the benefits of these low key prospects stepping into the line-up when we have injuries.  Nils Aman for instance, netted two points against Seattle when he got called up.

 

Hoglander, whom many people have included in trade proposals, many of which revolve around an aging Tanev, has taken a noticeable step forward in his game this season.  I don't think it will be too long before Hirose will be able to be fill in nicely and consistently on a bottom 6 pairing.  

Edited November 28, 2023 by Jeremy Hronek

[Jeremy Hronek]

On 11/27/2023 at 5:07 AM, Provost said:

8th in the league and 6th in the West if you consider winning percentage because we have played more games than most teams.  Still not a lot to complain about, especially when coming from being a bottom feeder for the last several years.

Even with most of the bounces going our way, we are still below teams like LA, Vegas, Colorado, Winnipeg, and Dallas... all teams we would have to face in the playoffs if we make it that far.  We would be in tough in any series against these guys and our roster still has work to do in order to be a favourite when facing any of them.  We are a top heavy lineup which hurts more in the playoffs because a team can just lean on those guys to shut them down and wear them down.  More depth, more size, more grit, more secondary scoring... all adds to make to move from being a playoff team to being a real contender.

 

I agree with most of your post (i.e. winning percentage being a more accurate reflection of where we are in the overall standings and in the West), the part in bold raises my eyebrows a little as this might indirectly imply that "the bounces haven't mostly gone in favour of our rivals."  That's probably not what you are trying to say but there is a bit of a hidden inference there (intentional or not). At the end of the day, if the bounces have gone our way, I'd argue that it's because of our work ethic.  In the NHL, more times than not, teams often put themselves in a position where luck can favour them (and hence, "luck" not really being luck most of the time).  

[Provost]

I will post the odds updates again around Christmas/New Years.

 

It is getting pretty likely now for a playoff berth.  Even with Edmonton and Calgary not in a complete tailspin the last few weeks, we have played well enough that they haven’t made up ground… only lost remaining runway left in the season to catch up.

 

Looking at the last 10 game column in the standings is really useful for seeing how hard it is to make up ground.  If we are playing .600 hockey with about 50

games left, that means teams chasing us need to play .700-.750 (115-123 point pace over a season) to catch us.  They are more than 10 points back so have to gain more than two points in each 10 game stretch.  If the gap is still

as wide ten games from now all it takes is one bad 10 game stretch of .500 or below hockey from a team chasing us and they are effectively toast.

 

It is heartening when we are going through patches of team lulls and poorer play, we are still playing .500 hockey.

 

 A weird anomaly this season is that our division may be historically weak unless something changes a lot in the next few months.  It isn’t impossible around 85 points would get us into the playoffs as the 3rd seed in the division even if we were 10 points below the wildcard teams or teams that miss the playoffs from the other divisions.  
 

Aside from the top three, the rest of our division is struggling at or well below .500.

 

They will be far enough out by New Years that you would think both Edmonton and Calgary give up on the season and are big deadline sellers, meaning that pretty much locks up one of the top three division spots for us.

 

The math is looking pretty rosy!

[The Aquaman]

Does LA ever play? Or will the play everyday in January, February?

[Provost]

Well it is after Christmas when odds start moving again due to the shortening remaining runway in the season for teams to make moves.

 

Major odds sites:

 

Money Puck 99.5%
Playoff Status 99%
Power Rankings Guru 99.3%
The Athletic 98%
Hockey Reference 99.7%

Those are some pretty startling odds with half a season remaining.  It is as close to a sure thing  as you can get until the final game is played to mathematically lock you in.

 

What does this mean?  How aggressive do we need to be between now and the deadline?

 

Now is the time to look around at the competition and see if we really stack up.  The resurgent Oilers are a worry, but in the playoffs, depth and goaltending matters.  A line dedicated to shutting down McDavid leaves their team in trouble.  LA and Vegas seem beatable suddenly.  We have a decent shot at getting out of the conference (as always depending on injuries and puck luck).

 

Looking at our roster, what moves are there to be made? Specifically to compete against our likely opponents?

 

Our D isn’t really in need of a star guy anymore.  It is big, mobile, and can score.  Myers as a 3rd pairing guy is not that bad, and he isn’t getting moved with his trade protection anyways.  Juulsen is solid depth.  If you could find a Schenn like depth addition to protect against injuries at a cheap price I think that is what you do.

 

At forward it is more complicated. You probably don’t keep the Lotto line together in the playoffs with a need to spread out scoring.  Finding a 2C though gives you that option and ability to move either Miller or Petterson to the wings if matchups aren’t going your way.  A power forward in the top six would be really helpful.

 

The pieces you have to move to make the money work are Kuzmenko and Hoglander.

 

Do you take a big swing and spend a lot for a guy like Tuch if you can pry him out of a floundering Buffalo, or do you take their cheap option in Greenway?

 

Who is a 2C who could complement our current guys?

 

 

 

Edited January 11 by Provost

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, Provost said:

Well it is after Christmas when odds start moving again due to the shortening remaining runway in the season for teams to make moves.

 

Major odds sites:

 

Money Puck 99.5%
Playoff Status 99%
Power Rankings Guru 99.3%
The Athletic 98%
Hockey Reference 99.7%

Those are some pretty startling odds with half a season remaining.  It is as close to a sure thing  as you can get until the final game is played to mathematically lock you in.

 

What does this mean?  How aggressive do we need to be between now and the deadline?

 

Now is the time to look around at the competition and see if we really stack up.  The resurgent Oilers are a worry, but in the playoffs, depth and goaltending matters.  A line dedicated to shutting down McDavid leaves their team in trouble.  LA and Vegas seem beatable suddenly.  We have a decent shot at getting out of the division (as always depending on injuries and puck luck).

 

Looking at our roster, what moves are there to be made? Specifically to compete against our likely opponents?

 

Our D isn’t really in need of a star guy anymore.  It is big, mobile, and can score.  Myers as a 3rd pairing guy is not that bad, and he isn’t getting moved with his trade protection anyways.  Juulsen is solid depth.  If you could find a Schenn like depth addition to protect against injuries at a cheap price I think that is what you do.

 

At forward it is more complicated. You probably don’t keep the Lotto line together in the playoffs with a need to spread out scoring.  Finding a 2C though gives you that option and ability to move either Miller or Petterson to the wings if matchups aren’t going your way.  A power forward in the top six would be really helpful.

 

The pieces you have to move to make the money work are Kuzmenko and Hoglander.

 

Do you take a big swing and spend a lot for a guy like Tuch if you can pry him out of a floundering Buffalo, or do you take their cheap option in Greenway?

 

Who is a 2C who could complement our current guys?

 

 

 

Thomas Novak.  50 to 60 point 2C with an $800k cap hit this year.  Could potentially bring him in without taking anything out of the current lineup.