Dakota Joshua | #81 | C/W

[Coconuts]

22 hours ago, HKSR said:

I don't think he has the ceiling of a Tuch.  I'm thinking more along the lines of Nic Roy or Nick Paul. 

 

Probably not. We're not talking young player here, Joshua will be 28 in May and most players are what they are by that point. More than likely the best case scenario is Joshua continuing to simply be what he has been this season. 

 

Tuch will also be 28 in May, but if one looks at five of his past six seasons it's quite obvious he's got a much better track record of producing. As a young player no less. 

 

More than likely what we have seen this season is Joshua's ceiling unless one envisions him as a top six player instead of a third liner, which I don't. Their pedigree is also different, with Joshua having been drafted in the 5th round whereas Tuch was drafted 18OA. 

[-AJ-]

Just now, Coconuts said:

 

Probably not. We're not talking young player here, Joshua will be 28 in May and most players are what they are by that point. More than likely the best case scenario is Joshua continuing to simply be what he has been this season. 

 

Tuch will also be 28 in May, but if one looks at five of his past six seasons it's quite obvious he's got a much better track record of producing. As a young player no less. 

 

More than likely what we have seen this season is Joshua's ceiling unless one envisions him as a top six player instead of a third liner, which I don't. Their pedigree is also different, with Joshua having been drafted in the 5th round whereas Tuch was drafted 18OA. 

 

For sure. The one caveat I would give is Miller, who, at 31, seems to be the best he's ever been. The Sedins were that way too, but those do seem to be exceptions to the rule. Joshua is probably a 3rd liner who maybe has space to be called a middle six forward at his best, and that's damn good given that he was pretty much a 13th forward when he arrived here.

[Coconuts]

1 minute ago, -AJ- said:

 

For sure. The one caveat I would give is Miller, who, at 31, seems to be the best he's ever been. The Sedins were that way too, but those do seem to be exceptions to the rule. Joshua is probably a 3rd liner who maybe has space to be called a middle six forward at his best, and that's damn good given that he was pretty much a 13th forward when he arrived here.

 

I'm not really a fan of Miller as a person, but he always had the pedigree to potentially have more in the tank as a 15OA pick. His fourth season had him put up 43 in 82, his fifth season had him put up 56 in 82. He had three 40+ seasons and one 50+ point season prior to being traded the Vancouver. Maybe he'd have thrived sooner if he'd stuck with the Rangers, but he was stuck on a deep Tampa team when we acquired him. 

 

Miller leveled up as a Canuck, but it didn't come out of nowhere. The twins always had the pedigree too as top five picks, they just took a bit longer to get going but it's not as if Canucks fans couldn't see that they were special. Every once in a while players will kinda come out of nowhere and it's as if they just suddenly decide they're good, but most of the time players generally are what they are by their later 20's. 

 

But for sure, I'm not discounting his value, I just don't projecting him as a Tuch level player is realistic given they're the same age. If he were doing what he's done this season at say.. 22, maybe, but he's gonna be 28. At best Joshua's maybe a Tuch-lite middle six forward, as you've said. But that's not nothing, he's found money at this point. It's just a matter of what he ends up being paid and by whom. 

 

Sounds like he's going to be a priority for management, but he may have to take less than he could get elsewhere to stay and maybe he'll do just that. 

[-AJ-]

5 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

But for sure, I'm not discounting his value, I just don't projecting him as a Tuch level player is realistic given they're the same age. If he were doing what he's done this season at say.. 22, maybe, but he's gonna be 28. At best Joshua's maybe a Tuch-lite middle six forward, as you've said. But that's not nothing, he's found money at this point. It's just a matter of what he ends up being paid and by whom. 

 

Sounds like he's going to be a priority for management, but he may have to take less than he could get elsewhere to stay and maybe he'll do just that. 

 

Yeah, Tuch and Joshua are definitely not apples to apples players. I don't think Joshua will ever be a point a game nor close to that level. I still do think that although he won't be the same level as Miller or the twins, he could still hit a peak at 30 or 31 that is maybe a 2nd line guy for a year or two scoring 25 goals and 55-60 points or something; however, I wouldn't predict that. He's a 40-point guy right now and like you, I suspect the 35-45-point range is probably where he'll stay for the next three or four years.

[Wilbur]

Joshua hits 155th in all-time Canuck scoring with his goal last night.

 

154	Kyle Wellwood	C	149	32	20	52
155	Dakota Joshua	C	137	27	25	52
156	Adam Gaudette	C	153	21	31	52
157	Dave Capuano	C	88	16	36	52
158	David Booth	LW	134	26	25	51

[flat land fish]

On 4/4/2024 at 4:09 PM, -AJ- said:

 

Yeah, Tuch and Joshua are definitely not apples to apples players. I don't think Joshua will ever be a point a game nor close to that level. I still do think that although he won't be the same level as Miller or the twins, he could still hit a peak at 30 or 31 that is maybe a 2nd line guy for a year or two scoring 25 goals and 55-60 points or something; however, I wouldn't predict that. He's a 40-point guy right now and like you, I suspect the 35-45-point range is probably where he'll stay for the next three or four years.

What sort of cap hit will that drive at UFA?

[Gurn]

While I like Joshua a lot, I hope he, and his agent, don't think his shooting percentage and goal scoring are going to remain high.

I'd  try to sign him, for a bit more money, but not a lot more money.

 

Last guy that got signed by the Nucks, with a wacky shooting %;  didn't make it through the next season, with the team.

Edited Saturday at 06:24 PM by Gurn

[kettlevalley]

I could see Joshua getting shots in the top 6 next year and what he brings is not so much goal scoring.  I don't have an issue at 3m for a top 6/top 9 play driver.  And I think 2.5m is more what he would be happy with if he gets a 3 year deal @ 7.5m. That makes good sense.