The Long Term Value of Elias Pettersson

[Jeremy Hronek]

Let's make no mistake about it.  

 

Elias Pettersson is a damn good two-way hockey player when he's on his game, and likely falls somewhere in the Top 20 best overall players in the league.....likely even higher.  

 

In a Salary-Cap era however, there's a strong argument to be made that cup winning teams don't necessarily have the best players in the league, but rather, the players with the best value in the league relative to their cap hits and subsequent C.H. percentages that they occupy on said teams.  Case in point - From 2010-2015, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin were probably the two best players in the game and yet it was Chicago and LA that won multiple cups largely because the cap hits and subsequent values to players like Toews, Kane, Seabrook, Hossa, Keith, Doughty, Kopitar, Quick, Brown, etc. were absolute steals at the time.  The top players on those cup winning teams had cap hits that had relatively low C.H% relative to the team's overall cap.  In fact, one can even argue that both Chicago and LA started to decline once guys like Toews, Kane, and Kopitar received those 10 million dollar contracts (which at the time, were high C.H% contracts). As this was happening, the cap was gradually rising which ultimately decreased the overall C.H% that contracts such as Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc. had.  In other words, those contracts became the new "high value" contracts and so Pittsburgh and Washington won cups over the next 3 seasons.   During the 2010's, Boston was arguably the most consistent team and again, it has to do with "value" cap hits and subsequent relatively low C.H% to top players.

 

A few years down the road, history repeated itself  Tampa Bay won multiple cups despite Connor McDavid being the best player in the game.  Nathan MacKinnon, with his 6ish million dollar cap hit, also won a cup.  

 

The teams that have won cups since 2010, have done so with all/most of their top players having relatively low C.H%'s relative to the overall salary cup.  From 2010-2015, Pittsburgh, despite having two of the best players in the game, were upstaged by Boston, LA, and Chicago because the latter teams had better value contracts. Toronto, despite having Matthews, Tavares, and Marner, have also been upstaged by Eastern rival teams that have relatively low C.H%'s (which has allowed said teams to invest heavier in depth).  The Oilers with McDavid are in the same boat.  In Toronto's case, many have argued that in retrospect, the Leafs shot themselves in the foot with the Tavares signing.

 

Here is the ultimate point that I'm trying to make.  The Canucks need to be careful with how much money they give to Elias Pettersson.  Yes, Pettersson is an excellent player, but given what history has shown, how likely would it be for the Canucks to win a cup if Pettersson is making $11+ million dollars?   Hopefully, Pettersson and his agent are committed to winning and would be willing to accept a modern day version of Jack Hughes' contract/cap hit, or a modern day version of Sebastian Aho's contract/cap hit. So, in the modern era, this might equate to a $9.5-$9.75 million dollar deal (I haven't done the exact math).  

 

Given what history has proven, teams will not win a cup if any one player takes up too high of a C.H% relative to the team no matter how good the player is.  In other words, If Pettersson isn't willing to take at least a slight discount in order to "serve the greater good" in terms of building a winner, the Canucks might be better off moving him.

[Elias Pettersson]

Salary numbers are adjusted based on cap percentage.  That is the key.  Doesn't matter what Petey's salary is, the only thing that matters is what percentage of the cap his salary takes up.

 

Vegas won the cup last year after they acquired Jack Eichel who was dominant in the playoffs.  His salary is $10 million and his salary took up 12% of the $82.5 million cap.

 

So, Petey's salary can take up to 12% of the cap.  If the cap is rising to $92 million in 2 years, then that means Petey, on a long term deal, can get paid up to $11 million.  If he signs an 8 year deal and the cap hits $100 million by 2026, then his salary can be up to $12 million.  This is the example you are using when the cap went up and then Pittsburgh and Washington won their cups.  Petey will sign for anywhere from $11 to $12 million, so it should be fine.  He might be over the 12% on the first 2 years of his deal, but will be at the level and even lower for the rest of his deal.

 

Also, Petey is a better player than Aho, who has never even hit 84 points.  So there is no reason for him to take an Aho deal.  Petey is a 100 point player.  Aho is not...

Edited December 17, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[Jeremy Hronek]

52 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Salary numbers are adjusted based on cap percentage.  That is the key.  Doesn't matter what Petey's salary is, the only thing that matters is what percentage of the cap his salary takes up.

 

 

 

That's exactly what I said.  

 

With regards to the cap (potentially rising to $92 million in 2 years) do we know with utmost certainty that the cap is going to rise to that level? If not, it might be risky.   Also, our situation might not be completely analogous to Pittsburgh's since Pittsburgh had their core players locked up for a very long time.  Hence - they had the luxury of waiting for the cap to go up while the contracts of their top players naturally adjusted to a lower CH%.  

 

With the Canucks, all of Boeser, Kuzmenko, Demko, and Hughes will be UFA's within these next 4 years and so we might not have that luxury.  

 

Agreed with you about Sebastian Aho.  I shouldn't have used him as an example.  The Jack Hughes comparison is probably a more appropriate example.  

Edited December 17, 2023 by Jeremy Hronek

[DownUndaCanuck]

He's regressed a bit since a hot start but he'll probably end up being a 100pt player. I know we can't really directly compare him to Miller at 8M but we kind of can?

 

If he ends up with 90pts I think 9M is fair, 100pts and 10M is fair, but to be getting 11-12M he really needs to be a top-5 center in the league and right now he's just outside tat bubble.

[Jeremy Hronek]

1 hour ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

He's regressed a bit since a hot start but he'll probably end up being a 100pt player. I know we can't really directly compare him to Miller at 8M but we kind of can?

 

If he ends up with 90pts I think 9M is fair, 100pts and 10M is fair, but to be getting 11-12M he really needs to be a top-5 center in the league and right now he's just outside tat bubble.

 

I agree with this.  I'd be comfortable with offering Petey $9.5 million, and around $10 million if he were to hit 100 points, but would draw a red flag if he was looking for Tavares money, or anything north of $11 million.   

 

At some point, a player needs to decide if they want to receive the most money possible or if they want to "buy in" to an organization and win multiple cups.  

[HKSR]

$10.5 to $11m would be fair.  $10m would be a nice discount.  Over $11m would not be ideal.

[Jeremy Hronek]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

$10.5 to $11m would be fair.  $10m would be a nice discount.  Over $11m would not be ideal.

 

I'd be a little concerned with $11 million to be honest (unless, as @Elias Pettersson stated, the cap goes to atleast $92 million within the next two years or so).   

 

I mean, take a look at Tampa Bay for instance.  They don't have a single $10 million dollar cap hit on their team.  

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/lightning

 

And yes, I do realize that those contracts were signed in a different time period and that all/most of those guys would get signed to $10+ million dollar contracts in 2023.  Still - it bears worth mentioning.  Cost controlled elite talent + depth  = championships.   Chicago, Boston, LA, followed by Pittsburgh, Washington, and St. Louis, followed by Tampa Bay, Colorado, and Vegas pretty much all followed that formula.  

 

Between 2010-2015, Pittsburgh and Washington couldn't win cups because their top players occupied too high a C.H.%.  Same thing with teams like Edmonton and Toronto at present.  Guys like McDavid, Matthews, and Marner are all at or near the top of the league but their teams can't win cups because their top players take up too high a C.H% which makes it too difficult to invest in depth. 

 

I look at a team like Tampa Bay and see Hedman with a $7.8 million dollar cap hit and say to myself, "Daaaamn!"

 

So, that's where I stand with Petey.  Something around $10.25.......I think that might be my upper limit, but $11M+?.......I'm not so sure.   

[Hammertime]

The problem I see is Pete strikes me as a guy who isn't going to leave money on the table. He's shown absolutely no indication that he is going to do us any favors.

 

I think my walk away number is 10.5 x 8. There's still room there for us to ice a competitive team. If he want's more I think we have to seriously look at flipping him. We simply can't win with players who put themselves before the team. Hopefully it doesn't come to that and we lock him up long term and go on to perennially compete for the cup. 

 

Don't want to end up like the Leafs with a bunch of selfish me first players. 

[JeremyCuddles]

Tree fiddy

[Bob Long]

10.5 or trade him for Brady Tkachuk 

[Wiggums]

. wrong place

Edited December 17, 2023 by Wiggums

[Dom]

Wrong thread imma big dummy

Edited December 17, 2023 by Dom

[Bob Long]

Just now, Dom said:

Fuck off 

 

Whoa there sparky, this is a family site.

[Dom]

Just now, Bob Long said:

 

Whoa there sparky, this is a family site.

Get over it

[Bob Long]

Just now, Dom said:

Get over it

 

Why the anger?

[Dom]

Just now, Bob Long said:

 

Why the anger?

No anger. I actually posted it in the wrong thread cause I'm a dumb ass lmao. 

[Elias Pettersson]

4 hours ago, Jeremy Hronek said:

 

I'd be a little concerned with $11 million to be honest (unless, as @Elias Pettersson stated, the cap goes to atleast $92 million within the next two years or so).   

 

I mean, take a look at Tampa Bay for instance.  They don't have a single $10 million dollar cap hit on their team.  

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/lightning

 

And yes, I do realize that those contracts were signed in a different time period and that all/most of those guys would get signed to $10+ million dollar contracts in 2023.  Still - it bears worth mentioning.  Cost controlled elite talent + depth  = championships.   Chicago, Boston, LA, followed by Pittsburgh, Washington, and St. Louis, followed by Tampa Bay, Colorado, and Vegas pretty much all followed that formula.  

 

Between 2010-2015, Pittsburgh and Washington couldn't win cups because their top players occupied too high a C.H.%.  Same thing with teams like Edmonton and Toronto at present.  Guys like McDavid, Matthews, and Marner are all at or near the top of the league but their teams can't win cups because their top players take up too high a C.H% which makes it too difficult to invest in depth. 

 

I look at a team like Tampa Bay and see Hedman with a $7.8 million dollar cap hit and say to myself, "Daaaamn!"

 

So, that's where I stand with Petey.  Something around $10.25.......I think that might be my upper limit, but $11M+?.......I'm not so sure.   

 

Didn’t the Sedins take up almost 11% of the cap when they were hanging out in Sweden as UFA’s with rumours that Brian Burke was going to bring them toToronto to try and drive up their price?  11% for two players is 22%.  That’s a lot of money tied up for two players when a team is in their window and 2 years from going to the Stanley Cup finals.

 

They also took up 10% of the cap each at 34 years old when they were not even in their prime years.  So 20% total for two 34 year old players. Seems kinda selfish to me to take that kind of money when we were supposedly trying for one more shot at a cup…

 

Tampa doesn’t have a state tax.  So even though players get paid based on what location they are playing, they still play 50% of their games in Florida.  So half of $9.5 million is $4.75 million.  Provincial tax in BC for that kind of money is just over 20%.  So the difference in after tax income is around $1 million.  So Petey needs to make an extra $1 million playing in Vancouver is order to make the same money playing in Florida.

 

That’s why I keep saying his best comparable is Barkov.  Barkov is at $10 million, which puts Petey at $11 million.  Aho is at $9.75 million for an 83 point season, so Petey at $11 million is fair for both sides.  

Edited December 17, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

20 hours ago, Jeremy Hronek said:

Let's make no mistake about it.  

 

Elias Pettersson is a damn good two-way hockey player when he's on his game, and likely falls somewhere in the Top 20 best overall players in the league.....likely even higher.  

 

In a Salary-Cap era however, there's a strong argument to be made that cup winning teams don't necessarily have the best players in the league, but rather, the players with the best value in the league relative to their cap hits and subsequent C.H. percentages that they occupy on said teams.  Case in point - From 2010-2015, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin were probably the two best players in the game and yet it was Chicago and LA that won multiple cups largely because the cap hits and subsequent values to players like Toews, Kane, Seabrook, Hossa, Keith, Doughty, Kopitar, Quick, Brown, etc. were absolute steals at the time.  The top players on those cup winning teams had cap hits that had relatively low C.H% relative to the team's overall cap.  In fact, one can even argue that both Chicago and LA started to decline once guys like Toews, Kane, and Kopitar received those 10 million dollar contracts (which at the time, were high C.H% contracts). As this was happening, the cap was gradually rising which ultimately decreased the overall C.H% that contracts such as Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc. had.  In other words, those contracts became the new "high value" contracts and so Pittsburgh and Washington won cups over the next 3 seasons.   During the 2010's, Boston was arguably the most consistent team and again, it has to do with "value" cap hits and subsequent relatively low C.H% to top players.

 

A few years down the road, history repeated itself  Tampa Bay won multiple cups despite Connor McDavid being the best player in the game.  Nathan MacKinnon, with his 6ish million dollar cap hit, also won a cup.  

 

The teams that have won cups since 2010, have done so with all/most of their top players having relatively low C.H%'s relative to the overall salary cup.  From 2010-2015, Pittsburgh, despite having two of the best players in the game, were upstaged by Boston, LA, and Chicago because the latter teams had better value contracts. Toronto, despite having Matthews, Tavares, and Marner, have also been upstaged by Eastern rival teams that have relatively low C.H%'s (which has allowed said teams to invest heavier in depth).  The Oilers with McDavid are in the same boat.  In Toronto's case, many have argued that in retrospect, the Leafs shot themselves in the foot with the Tavares signing.

 

Here is the ultimate point that I'm trying to make.  The Canucks need to be careful with how much money they give to Elias Pettersson.  Yes, Pettersson is an excellent player, but given what history has shown, how likely would it be for the Canucks to win a cup if Pettersson is making $11+ million dollars?   Hopefully, Pettersson and his agent are committed to winning and would be willing to accept a modern day version of Jack Hughes' contract/cap hit, or a modern day version of Sebastian Aho's contract/cap hit. So, in the modern era, this might equate to a $9.5-$9.75 million dollar deal (I haven't done the exact math).  

 

Given what history has proven, teams will not win a cup if any one player takes up too high of a C.H% relative to the team no matter how good the player is.  In other words, If Pettersson isn't willing to take at least a slight discount in order to "serve the greater good" in terms of building a winner, the Canucks might be better off moving him.

8 years at 13 million per. That's his value. 

 

8 years @ 13 mill is good because the increase of the cap will keep making it look better each year or with each increase.

 

3 year term hurts the Canucks because the $ amount will be much higher after those 3 years and a 8 year term after 3 years pushes him into his mid 30s. 

 

Do you want EP40 making 15 million at 34,35 and 36 years old or 13 mill at 33 and lower amounts at 34,35-36

Edited December 18, 2023 by CanuckFanForever

[Westcoasting]

I see him around 10.5 - 11 million 8 years.

[Jeremy Hronek]

2 hours ago, Hammertime said:

The problem I see is Pete strikes me as a guy who isn't going to leave money on the table. He's shown absolutely no indication that he is going to do us any favors.

 

I think my walk away number is 10.5 x 8. There's still room there for us to ice a competitive team. If he want's more I think we have to seriously look at flipping him. We simply can't win with players who put themselves before the team. Hopefully it doesn't come to that and we lock him up long term and go on to perennially compete for the cup. 

 

Don't want to end up like the Leafs with a bunch of selfish me first players. 

 

It's funny that you mention the Leafs.  While I'm often wrong about a lot of things, I absolutely fucking NAILED it with the Leafs (atleast as of this writing).

 

After the Leafs signed Tavares in 2018 and gave him that monstrous deal, I knew that deal would indirectly hurt the Leafs.........why?  Because - signing Tavares to that HUGE 11 million dollar contract basically eliminated any chance of Leaf core players "buying in."   

 

"This outside got paid at a premium and so we want to get paid at a premium as well."   And sure enough, guys like Nylander, Matthews, and Marner broke the bank.  

 

To your other point, I also agree that Petey likely won't take a discount of any kind since his current deal was discounted.  

 

In theory, I would also probably consider moving Petey if he wanted more than $10.5 million but a move like that would always be easier said than done (btw - Petey+ to Buffalo for Cozens and Power is something that I'd have in mind if Buffalo were interested in discussing).  We'd have more players signed to good long term cap hits while Buffalo could build around Pettersson, Dahlin, and Thompson.  

[Jeremy Hronek]

2 hours ago, Bob Long said:

10.5 or trade him for Brady Tkachuk 

 

Ottawa wouldn't make that deal since Brady has a much better contract than Petey.   

 

That would definitely be something though:  Petey + one of our wingers to Ottawa for Tkachuk ad Stutzle.  

 

Would never happen though.

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Didn’t the Sedins take up almost 11% of the cap when they were hanging out in Sweden as UFA’s with rumours that Brian Burke was going to bring them toToronto to try and drive up their price?  11% for two players is 22%.  That’s a lot of money tied up for two players when a team is in their window and 2 years from going to the Stanley Cup finals.

 

They also took up 10% of the cap each at 34 years old when they were not even in their prime years.  So 20% total for two 34 year old players. Seems kinda selfish to me to take that kind of money when we were supposedly trying for one more shot at a cup…

 

Tampa doesn’t have a state tax.  So even though players get paid based on what location they are playing, they still play 50% of their games in Florida.  So half of $9.5 million is $4.75 million.  Provincial tax in BC for that kind of money is just over 20%.  So the difference in after tax income is around $1 million.  So Petey needs to make an extra $1 million playing in Vancouver is order to make the same money playing in Florida.

 

That’s why I keep saying his best comparable is Barkov.  Barkov is at $10 million, which puts Petey at $11 million.  Aho is at $9.75 million for an 83 point season, so Petey at $11 million is fair for both sides.  

11% of 83.5M is 9.2M.  If Petey signs for that, I think we are all extremely happy.  $11M is over 13% of the cap.  I just don't see how he's worth that right now anyways.  

[Bob Long]

13 hours ago, Jeremy Hronek said:

Let's make no mistake about it.  

 

Elias Pettersson is a damn good two-way hockey player when he's on his game, and likely falls somewhere in the Top 20 best overall players in the league.....likely even higher.  

 

In a Salary-Cap era however, there's a strong argument to be made that cup winning teams don't necessarily have the best players in the league, but rather, the players with the best value in the league relative to their cap hits and subsequent C.H. percentages that they occupy on said teams.  Case in point - From 2010-2015, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin were probably the two best players in the game and yet it was Chicago and LA that won multiple cups largely because the cap hits and subsequent values to players like Toews, Kane, Seabrook, Hossa, Keith, Doughty, Kopitar, Quick, Brown, etc. were absolute steals at the time.  The top players on those cup winning teams had cap hits that had relatively low C.H% relative to the team's overall cap.  In fact, one can even argue that both Chicago and LA started to decline once guys like Toews, Kane, and Kopitar received those 10 million dollar contracts (which at the time, were high C.H% contracts). As this was happening, the cap was gradually rising which ultimately decreased the overall C.H% that contracts such as Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc. had.  In other words, those contracts became the new "high value" contracts and so Pittsburgh and Washington won cups over the next 3 seasons.   During the 2010's, Boston was arguably the most consistent team and again, it has to do with "value" cap hits and subsequent relatively low C.H% to top players.

 

A few years down the road, history repeated itself  Tampa Bay won multiple cups despite Connor McDavid being the best player in the game.  Nathan MacKinnon, with his 6ish million dollar cap hit, also won a cup.  

 

The teams that have won cups since 2010, have done so with all/most of their top players having relatively low C.H%'s relative to the overall salary cup.  From 2010-2015, Pittsburgh, despite having two of the best players in the game, were upstaged by Boston, LA, and Chicago because the latter teams had better value contracts. Toronto, despite having Matthews, Tavares, and Marner, have also been upstaged by Eastern rival teams that have relatively low C.H%'s (which has allowed said teams to invest heavier in depth).  The Oilers with McDavid are in the same boat.  In Toronto's case, many have argued that in retrospect, the Leafs shot themselves in the foot with the Tavares signing.

 

Here is the ultimate point that I'm trying to make.  The Canucks need to be careful with how much money they give to Elias Pettersson.  Yes, Pettersson is an excellent player, but given what history has shown, how likely would it be for the Canucks to win a cup if Pettersson is making $11+ million dollars?   Hopefully, Pettersson and his agent are committed to winning and would be willing to accept a modern day version of Jack Hughes' contract/cap hit, or a modern day version of Sebastian Aho's contract/cap hit. So, in the modern era, this might equate to a $9.5-$9.75 million dollar deal (I haven't done the exact math).  

 

Given what history has proven, teams will not win a cup if any one player takes up too high of a C.H% relative to the team no matter how good the player is.  In other words, If Pettersson isn't willing to take at least a slight discount in order to "serve the greater good" in terms of building a winner, the Canucks might be better off moving him.

 

its really a tough one imo. You can't really overpay, because it really screws the team, and with that OEL buyout there's no room for error. OTOH how do you replace the talent?

 

The only player I'd want right now really is Brady if Petey wasn't willing to do a reasonable deal. I know he's not a C, but he brings exactly the kind of play Tocc would run with.

 

I'd much prefer Petey does something reasonable but I don't get the sense Allvin is going to let it go beyond the point of insuring this team gets value one way or another. 

 

[Jeremy Hronek]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Didn’t the Sedins take up almost 11% of the cap when they were hanging out in Sweden as UFA’s with rumours that Brian Burke was going to bring them toToronto to try and drive up their price?  11% for two players is 22%.  That’s a lot of money tied up for two players when a team is in their window and 2 years from going to the Stanley Cup finals.

 

They also took up 10% of the cap each at 34 years old when they were not even in their prime years.  So 20% total for two 34 year old players. Seems kinda selfish to me to take that kind of money when we were supposedly trying for one more shot at a cup…

 

Tampa doesn’t have a state tax.  So even though players get paid based on what location they are playing, they still play 50% of their games in Florida.  So half of $9.5 million is $4.75 million.  Provincial tax in BC for that kind of money is just over 20%.  So the difference in after tax income is around $1 million.  So Petey needs to make an extra $1 million playing in Vancouver is order to make the same money playing in Florida.

 

That’s why I keep saying his best comparable is Barkov.  Barkov is at $10 million, which puts Petey at $11 million.  Aho is at $9.75 million for an 83 point season, so Petey at $11 million is fair for both sides.  

re - Sedins.  I'll have to check cap friendly but I seem to recall the twins taking up about 10.75% of the cap (each); so about 21.5%. during their cup window days.  

 

You are correct about Tampa as far as state tax is concerned.  

 

You might be right about Pettersson as far as an $11 million dollar contract goes (I actually just remembered that Dahlin received $11 million), but I still think it's going to be tough to win a cup with that C.H.%.     

[HKSR]

4 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

its really a tough one imo. You can't really overpay, because it really screws the team, and with that OEL buyout there's no room for error. OTOH how do you replace the talent?

 

The only player I'd want right now really is Brady if Petey wasn't willing to do a reasonable deal. I know he's not a C, but he brings exactly the kind of play Tocc would run with.

 

I'd much prefer Petey does something reasonable but I don't get the sense Allvin is going to let it go beyond the point of insuring this team gets value one way or another. 

 

We would need a centre back if Petey was traded.  We have no depth in that position within the franchise.  Hanging our hopes on Aatu Raty probably isn't a good idea.