Are the Canucks on the Path of worse case scenario? or is there a Glimmer of Hope?

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

I have been watching the standings very closely this whole season as I bet most of you have and now that they sit 1st in their conference Tied in pts with Vegas but with the tie breaker of regulation wins 21 to 15 (which is just outstanding) and leading the League in points with Vegas @ 47 ( keep in mind that both the Rangers and Bruins have 4 games in hand with point % .750 and .733 respectively). 

 

As impressive as all this is it is what is happening below them that make the Canucks position in their conference get dicey. Which will beg the Question Is it the worse case scenario?

 

Let me explain?

 

So far it looks like no team in the Pacific is going to catch Vegas, Vancouver or LA. Which means the Canucks are going to be 1st, 2nd or 3rd in their division. That means the Canucks path through the playoffs works out in 2 ways. Either the Canuck place 2nd or 3rd (2/3 chance of this happening) and they play LA or Vegas in the first round. If they get through to the second they play LA or Vegas in the 2nd round assuming no great upset 8th place team knocking out the 1st place team in the Conference. If the Canucks make it to the 3rd round they than end up playing Dal, Col or Winn to get through to the final (those 3 teams currently lead the Central division and have the best odds at this point).

 

What makes this the worse Case Scenario is, Just to advance to the Conference final the Canucks would have to play the 2 best teams other then themselves in the in the western conference. 

 

The Facts, here are the Pt % of the top 5 other then the Canucks so you don't need to look them up in the western conference. Vegas = .691, LA .690, Dal .677, Winn .661 and Col .636.

 

Let me just show you one other thing that I noticed.

 

The Canucks have a very small chance of dropping to 7th place and yet if they where this would be their path instead. Currently the 7th place team Nash with a pt% of .576 would play Dal in the first round and if they beat them, Nash would then have to play Col or Win never seeing LA, Vegas or Canucks until the Conference Final. This is a far easier path then having to play Vega and LA then the top remaining team in the western division. That means if the Canucks dropped to 7th they would play Dals and then 1 of Col or Win and then what ever seed still remained in the Pacific LA, Vegas or other.

 

Just to show you that the Canucks have almost a zero chance at 7th place currently Nash and Ari currently hold the wild card positions (both central division teams) so either 1 of Cal, Sea, or Edm would have to come back to knock the Canucks out of the top 3 position in the pacific. However if they did do this yes the Canucks at this point would take the first wildcard 7th position. But as it currently stands Cal pt % is .500, Sea is .456 and Edm is .483. 

 

The Glimmer of Hope.

 

Canucks place 1st in the Pacific (which would essentially place them first in the Conference) The Canucks would then play the 2nd wild card position or the 8th team in the western conference  (currently Ari) and then the Winner of LA or Vegas.

 

Disclaimer there're is scenarios 3 as well. Ari Knocks out let's say Vegas and the Canucks beat LA and the Canucks Play Ari in the 2nd round. Less likely but sill a possibility.

 

Why is Playing Vegas and LA the worse case scenario other than having to play both teams?

 

The Canucks are not playoff hardened yet. As impressive as this season has been for them it is still the regular season and the playoffs all together is a different beast and the Canucks are currently staring down the hardest playoff schedule of all division leaders. 

 

As you all know, I have been hard on Coach Tocchet and will remain pointing out the flaws of this team and it's structure exactly because of what I have written here today. Tired can not be and excuse not being prepared to start games, Their PK being close to the bottom of the league their PP now faltering can not happen to a team that wants to succeed in the playoffs that is currently looking down a great possibility of having the hardest playoff schedule in the league. These flaws are just the recipe of a 1 and done team and I know that most Canuck fans do not want to see this happen.

 

Forever A Canucks Fan who one day wants to see a Canuck team bring home a Cup.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by CanuckFanForever

[Ghostsof1915]

Remember last year, Leaf fans were over the moon, that Boston was eliminated in the 1st round and they were going to cruise into the Conference finals?

 

Maybe stop worrying about stuff that's not in our control, and just watch what happens.

 

The Canucks will do fine as long as they stay focused, stick to the plan, and keep working hard.

 

Whatever happens, happens.

[Jess]

I was thinking about this yesterday, but at the end of the day, you've got to beat some very good teams to make a run in the playoffs. Sure, it would suck to have to go through both LA and Vegas in the first two rounds as very tough competition, but if we're gonna make a case that we're one of the very best, we've got to prove it by beating these great teams.

[NoCupSyndrome]

6 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

I was thinking about this yesterday, but at the end of the day, you've got to beat some very good teams to make a run in the playoffs. Sure, it would suck to have to go through both LA and Vegas in the first two rounds as very tough competition, but if we're gonna make a case that we're one of the very best, we've got to prove it by beating these great teams.

 

There would be no asterisk on a SC win after going through Vegas, LA, Dallas/etc. that is for sure haha

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

1 hour ago, NoCupSyndrome said:

 

There would be no asterisk on a SC win after going through Vegas, LA, Dallas/etc. that is for sure haha

No doubt, It would be considered one of the Hardest paths to a Cup in some time

[IBatch]

Personally, have been hoping EDM gets back into the playoff picture, so we can lay waste to them in the first round. 

 

The glimmer of hope for me, anyways, is ive watched the Canucks in 94 lay waste to contenders.   One was CAL, the other was TO.   So you just never know.   And it's not like we didn't have tough competition in 2011 either.   It's very rare that you won't on the way to the final.    And in the final either.    Thanks for posting OP, this is similar to how i've been viewing it from the outset (that we'd have either LA or Vegas to start and likely both of them)...

Edited December 23, 2023 by IBatch

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

1 hour ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Remember last year, Leaf fans were over the moon, that Boston was eliminated in the 1st round and they were going to cruise into the Conference finals?

 

Maybe stop worrying about stuff that's not in our control, and just watch what happens.

 

The Canucks will do fine as long as they stay focused, stick to the plan, and keep working hard.

 

Whatever happens, happens.

What ever happens will happen No doubt

 

But the team can do things to help themselves as well. Learning to start games at the drop of the first puck, not getting outshot. If They make it hard on themselves in the first round then the second round is going to be that much harder. They will have exhausted themselves in the first.

[Ghostsof1915]

2 minutes ago, CanuckFanForever said:

What ever happens will happen No doubt

 

But the team can do things to help themselves as well. Learning to start games at the drop of the first puck, not getting outshot. If They make it hard on themselves in the first round then the second round is going to be that much harder. They will have exhausted themselves in the first.

The team can't control other games that Vegas or other teams play.

Then idiots in Toronto can't say the Canucks "Had an easy route to the Stanley Cup".

 

[HKSR]

There's no easy road to a Stanley Cup.  There's so much parity in the league now that every team is capable of winning a series as soon as they make the playoffs.  LUCK has a LOT more to do with results than anything else.  One bad injury, one bad bounce, and everything can unravel, even for the best of them.  Boston was the best example last year.

[6of1_halfdozenofother]

People get worried easliy about what team we're needing to play.

 

I'm more worried about what refs we're going to get, and how much the league will start poking around in the "supplementary discipline" meddling.  After all, even the refs themselves have confirmed that they exercise "game management".  (ie. match fixing, just better sounding)

[Elias Pettersson]

I'm pretty sure that LA does not want to play us in the 1st round either.  It works both ways.  Same with Vegas.  You think Vegas wants any piece of us in a 7 game series, especially now that we have Ivan Drago on defence?

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

There's no easy road to a Stanley Cup.  There's so much parity in the league now that every team is capable of winning a series as soon as they make the playoffs.  LUCK has a LOT more to do with results than anything else.  One bad injury, one bad bounce, and everything can unravel, even for the best of them.  Boston was the best example last year.

I always hate the exception arguments, what happen to Boston was the exception. Most times the team that is most rounded over all are the teams that win. Honestly I don't even Care if the have to go through Vegas, LA, Col and then Bos or NYR. I think they can do it if they just clean up a few aspects of their game. My hoping is on that Tocchet can get them to do it. If this team had hire an experienced Playoff hardened Coach I wouldn't be hoping I would believe they would. The team doesn't have playoff experience and Tocchet doesn't have Head Coach success in the playoffs. So I have to hope that Tocchet is some how the exception and I hate the exception arguments.

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

7 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I'm pretty sure that LA does not want to play us in the 1st round either.  It works both ways.  Same with Vegas.  You think Vegas wants any piece of us in a 7 game series, especially now that we have Ivan Drago on defence?

The Vegas team is playoff hardened and a Stanley Cup Campion the same can not be said about the Canucks. LA i would agree with you more on that point.

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, CanuckFanForever said:

I always hate the exception arguments, what happen to Boston was the exception. Most times the team that is most rounded over all are the teams that win. Honestly I don't even Care if the have to go through Vegas, LA, Col and then Bos or NYR. I think they can do it if they just clean up a few aspects of their game. My hoping is on that Tocchet can get them to do it. If this team had hire an experienced Playoff hardened Coach I wouldn't be hoping I would believe they would. The team doesn't have playoff experience and Tocchet doesn't have Head Coach success in the playoffs. So I have to hope that Tocchet is some how the exception and I hate the exception arguments.

They're not an exception though.  The President's Trophy winner generally doesn't win a cup.  That tells you about the parity in this league. 

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

Just now, HKSR said:

They're not an exception though.  The President's Trophy winner generally doesn't win a cup.  That tells you about the parity in this league. 

I agree, but the exception is that they don't usually get knocked out in the first round.

[Bob Long]

19 minutes ago, HKSR said:

There's no easy road to a Stanley Cup.  There's so much parity in the league now that every team is capable of winning a series as soon as they make the playoffs.  LUCK has a LOT more to do with results than anything else.  One bad injury, one bad bounce, and everything can unravel, even for the best of them.  Boston was the best example last year.

 

bingo. The right dominoes fall in the 1st round and who knows. 

 

Even Vegas, they faced a depleted FLA for their win. 

 

[IBatch]

23 minutes ago, HKSR said:

There's no easy road to a Stanley Cup.  There's so much parity in the league now that every team is capable of winning a series as soon as they make the playoffs.  LUCK has a LOT more to do with results than anything else.  One bad injury, one bad bounce, and everything can unravel, even for the best of them.  Boston was the best example last year.

LUCK for sure.   CAR was outplaying Florida, they had bad luck (and great goaltending).   Dallas lost but it was the final as far as the best on best was last year.   Was the best series IMO. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by IBatch

[IBatch]

5 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

bingo. The right dominoes fall in the 1st round and who knows. 

 

Even Vegas, they faced a depleted FLA for their win. 

 

And FLD wasn't very good against CAR, but beat them.     Vegas was for sure the better team.    Wasn't a fan of cheering for Dallas either.   Point is, Vegas was the best team and the best team won.   And Florida wasn't as good - just lucky. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by IBatch

[Strawbone]

There is absolutely no way I'll consider the Canucks finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the division this year a "worst case scenario". That will be freakin' awesome. Crazy stuff happens in the playoffs every single year, and I'm going to enjoy the ride no matter what happens or who they face. Unless they get swept in the first round - that I won't enjoy. But the way they are playing, I give that about a 1% chance. It's going to be a fun 2024!

[Elias Pettersson]

13 minutes ago, CanuckFanForever said:

The Vegas team is playoff hardened and a Stanley Cup Campion the same can not be said about the Canucks. LA i would agree with you more on that point.

 

Vegas is scared shitless of having to play us in the playoffs.  They know we can beat them.  Same when Colorado beat Tampa.  

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

6 minutes ago, Strawbone said:

There is absolutely no way I'll consider the Canucks finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the division this year a "worst case scenario". That will be freakin' awesome. Crazy stuff happens in the playoffs every single year, and I'm going to enjoy the ride no matter what happens or who they face. Unless they get swept in the first round - that I won't enjoy. But the way they are playing, I give that about a 1% chance. It's going to be a fun 2024!

Clearly this is not the worse case scenario that could possible happen to the Canucks. This was their position in the Playoffs.

 

Worse case scenario possibility for the Canucks would be the Canucks lose every game going forward because their plane crashed and they all died and have to call up their AHL team

Edited December 23, 2023 by CanuckFanForever

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Vegas is scared shitless of having to play us in the playoffs.  They know we can beat them.  Same when Colorado beat Tampa.  

Sure

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Vegas is scared shitless of having to play us in the playoffs.  They know we can beat them.  Same when Colorado beat Tampa.  

Yup. Othe clubs know who the best players (core groups) are. Every team in the league knows we are a really good club with a great core. Winning the Cup this June woukd not be at Al a surprise. 

[Goalie29]

9 minutes ago, HKSR said:

They're not an exception though.  The President's Trophy winner generally doesn't win a cup.  That tells you about the parity in this league. 

 

It might surprise you to know, that since the inception of the President's Trophy the winner has gone on to win the cup (if I counted right)more than 20% of the time.  That's not terrible odds.  Although it did happen more often pre-salary cap than it has since then.

 

As far as the OP goes, there is no universe in which I would consider finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd a worse case scenario.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, CanuckFanForever said:

Sure