[Article] A crude attempt to quantify the effect of Ryan Reaves 'firing up the boys'

[RWJC]

A crude attempt to quantify the effect of Ryan Reaves 'firing up the boys'

 

From the moment Ryan Reaves signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs it was inevitable that he'd become a significant source of discourse within the team's fanbase.

Through no fault of his own, the 36-year-old invites philosophical discussions about what it takes to win hockey games and how to conceptualize value that's hard to pin down in a precise way.

 

Some see him as a guy who injects needed toughness into a Maple Leafs team that has continually disappointed in the playoffs. Others perceive him as a waste of a roster spot who soaks up cap space that could be better used on a more versatile player able to occasionally chip in on offence and perhaps kill penalties.

 

The difficulty with any debate around Reaves — or players of his type who are 'tone-setters' that lack utility outside of their physicality — is that they tend to be spoken in two difficult languages simultaneously.

 

If you're pro-Reaves, the toughness, locker-room presence, and willingness to fight seem like obvious assets, but they are undoubtedly subjective. If you're anti-Reaves, your arguments are likely to be rooted in possession metrics and data about his lack of offensive impact.

 

A person armed with statistics is unlikely to heed an argument centred around something they see as unprovable. By the same token, someone who believes that players like Reaves serve a vital purpose probably won't be moved by his lack of tangible production — particularly considering he sees the ice for less than 10 minutes a game.

In order to help bridge the gap between these sides, we've decided to try putting some numbers to the effect Reaves has on his teammates — specifically via his signature skill of fighting.

 

Since dropping the mitts is meant to energize your team, we thought it would be worth exploring whether the squads Reaves has played for have performed well in the immediate aftermath of his tilts.

 

Method

 

Using hockeyfights.com we found the moment of the 83 regular-season fights of the bruiser's career, and looked at the play-by-play logs of the 10 minutes following those bouts.

It's difficult to know how long a fight is supposed to fire up a team, but half a period felt like a fair compromise between keeping things relatively narrow and still gathering a solid quantity of data.

With that play-by-play information, we tallied up how the veteran's teams have fared by both shots and goals after his 83 fights.

That's not precisely 830 minutes of hockey because some of the fights came with less than 10 minutes remaining in games — but that situation was fairly rare. Many of these battles happened in the first period in true tone-setting fashion.

 

Results

 

After Reaves has fought, his teams have done undeniably well.

Following his fights his squads have outshot opponents 410 to 361 and outscored them 46 to 25.

 

There are a few mitigating factors to consider with that. The first is that every Reaves fight contains another combatant who is theoretically also firing up his team. While Reaves tends to take care of business with his fists, those numbers include occasions when the opposing squad might've gotten more of a boost from the battle than his own.

It's also noteworthy that Reaves has generally played for good teams. For instance, in his first seven NHL seasons he played for a St. Louis Blues club that ranked fourth in the NHL in points during that timeframe (682). Immediately after his fights, St. Louis outshot its opponents 231-226, good for a 50.5% shot share, but over the course of those seasons the team had a 50.3% shot share.

Reaves also played for the Vegas Golden Knights between 2018-19 and 2020-21 at a time when they ranked 10th in the NHL in points and outshot opponents by an average of 34.1 to 29.1 each night.

 

The shot totals after all of the Reaves fights have his teams getting 53.2% of the attempts on net, which is a strong number — but not an overwhelming one considering the quality of the clubs he's played for. The goals make a much better case for the enforcer, but they come from a smaller sample.

 

Conclusion

 

Like all things Reaves, there's plenty up for interpretation here.

There is no way to measure the precise value of the winger energizing his teammates because we don't have a counterfactual if he hadn't fought.

 

Digging through his fights you can find instances where his pugilism came at a moment where the momentum in a game seemed to shift...

 

 

 

 

Nick Ashbourne

 

link to rest of article:

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/a-crude-attempt-to-quantify-the-effect-of-ryan-reaves-firing-up-the-boys-164001476.html

 

[Shift-4]

Yet teams don't keep him.

Including the Pens. No need for a Crosby bodyguard.

He either isn't much of a deterrent or just straight up sucks.

[Down By the River]

Appreciate you posting this, but it is another example of people who do not have a background in stats trying to jump onto the analytics bandwagon. 

 

This needed a paired sample t-test (at the very least) where you compare a team's shot-share pre- versus post-Reaves fighting. What if, for example, Vegas held a 57% shot-share prior to Reaves fighting? It would mean that they controlled shot-share less after Reaves fought. 

[RWJC]

6 minutes ago, Down By the River said:

Appreciate you posting this, but it is another example of people who do not have a background in stats trying to jump onto the analytics bandwagon. 

 

This needed a paired sample t-test (at the very least) where you compare a team's shot-share pre- versus post-Reaves fighting. What if, for example, Vegas held a 57% shot-share prior to Reaves fighting? It would mean that they controlled shot-share less after Reaves fought. 

It was more in follow up to a recent discussion in another thread regarding NHL tough guys and their perceived inherent value from past, present and future.

Re: stats - As the author points out in the title “a crude attempt”. Indeed 

[Down By the River]

2 minutes ago, RWJC said:

It was more in follow up to a recent discussion in another thread regarding NHL tough guys and their perceived inherent value from past, present and future.

Re: stats - As the author points out in the title “a crude attempt”. Indeed 

It is a great question to ask. But I also think that it would have been so easy to answer this question better, and answering the question poorly could even be worse than not answering it. Hopefully this doesn't come across as a criticism of you, just of the author of the article. 

[Elias Pettersson]

If this is true then why do teams keep trading him and why haven’t any of the teams he’s been on won a Stanley Cup?  
 

As a matter of fact, there are at least two teams that traded him that won the cup AFTER he was traded. Vegas and St. Louis. And Pittsburgh had already won 2 cups before they traded for him. And quickly got rid of him one year later. 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[Jess]

It's always fun to try to quantify things that haven't previously been effectively quantified. As @Down By the River referred to, my first thought when reading this excerpt was to consider the difference between before and after the fight to see if a statistically significant difference even occurred. Just because results are good, it doesn't mean any change has occurred; you have to compare to the pre-existing situation before determining if the fighting has an measureable effect. The writer does at least compare the shot and goal totals to the season averages, which may be a decent proxy.

[nergish]

So he's effectively a cheerleader?

[PhillipBlunt]

Physicality is part of hockey and always will be, but physicality in its moments. A player should primarily be of value to his team because of his ability to help win the game. Sometimes that's physicality. 

 

Does Reaves do much besides that? That's the question. 

[Nucker67]

Ryan Reaves?  Leafs suck. 

[Miss Korea]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

If this is true then why do teams keep trading him and why haven’t any of the teams he’s been on won a Stanley Cup?  
 

As a matter of fact, there are at least two teams that traded him that won the cup AFTER he was traded. Vegas and St. Louis. And Pittsburgh had already won 2 cups before they traded for him. And quickly got rid of him one year later. 

Counterpoint: why do good teams keep paying for him (via trade or signings with term) even as he's getting older and slower?

[Kragar]

Hey, we gotta give the author some credit here...

 

 

 

 

 

 

He dug deep to find out yet something else to talk about a Leafs player.  He's one step closer to meeting his annual goal.

[Elias Pettersson]

28 minutes ago, Miss Korea said:

Counterpoint: why do good teams keep paying for him (via trade or signings with term) even as he's getting older and slower?

Because teams get tired of being pushed around and so they bite the bullet and sign goons for term. 
 

I prefer to trade for guys like Lawson Crouse, Trent Frederic or Tom Wilson. Guys that know how to actually play hockey. 
 

Do You think Reaves is actually helping Toronto right now playing 7 minutes a night?

[The Arrogant Worms]

Laff's are in 13th place in the NHL.

 

Reeves is doing his thing.

[Miss Korea]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Because teams get tired of being pushed around and so they bite the bullet and sign goons for term. 
 

I prefer to trade for guys like Lawson Crouse, Trent Frederic or Tom Wilson. Guys that know how to actually play hockey. 
 

Do You think Reaves is actually helping Toronto right now playing 7 minutes a night?

I obviously don’t think he is, but he has consistently been picked up by good teams (long signings or lopsided trades), despite getting older and slower.

 

I have heard Reaves is one of the best locker room presences in the league.

[RawkDrummer]

I don't want Reaves here, toughness by committee will take us farther. 

[Curmudgeon]

32 minutes ago, Miss Korea said:

I have heard Reaves is one of the best locker room presences in the league.

 

The game isn't played in the locker room.

[Miss Korea]

54 minutes ago, Curmudgeon said:

 

The game isn't played in the locker room.

 

Have you ever played team sports?  Having a super team-oriented player can bring everyone together.  Leadership is a key factor for any successful team.  Reaves is probably more valuable on the bench talking to his teammates than on the ice being crap.

 

Beyond that, the game is indeed more than just the 60 minutes of play.

Halftimes and intermissions are an important way to make necessary adjustments or fire up the team.  It's impossible to quantify any of that, but you can see the momentum swings between periods.  I'm sure Reaves tries to help out as much as he can.

[AatuD2]

5 hours ago, Down By the River said:

Appreciate you posting this, but it is another example of people who do not have a background in stats trying to jump onto the analytics bandwagon. 

 

This needed a paired sample t-test (at the very least) where you compare a team's shot-share pre- versus post-Reaves fighting. What if, for example, Vegas held a 57% shot-share prior to Reaves fighting? It would mean that they controlled shot-share less after Reaves fought. 

 

Paired sample t-test!  Been a long time  

1 hour ago, RawkDrummer said:

I don't want Reaves here, toughness by committee will take us farther. 

 

I hope you're right, but right now we are getting pummeled in fights by committee. 

[AatuD2]

3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Because teams get tired of being pushed around and so they bite the bullet and sign goons for term. 
 

I prefer to trade for guys like Lawson Crouse, Trent Frederic or Tom Wilson. Guys that know how to actually play hockey. 
 

Do You think Reaves is actually helping Toronto right now playing 7 minutes a night?

 

I'd love to get one of those three or Tanner Jeannot but they're not available, not unless you're trading an entire draft class. 

 

 

[Elias Pettersson]

21 minutes ago, Miss Korea said:

 

Have you ever played team sports?  Having a super team-oriented player can bring everyone together.  Leadership is a key factor for any successful team.  Reaves is probably more valuable on the bench talking to his teammates than on the ice being crap.

 

Beyond that, the game is indeed more than just the 60 minutes of play.

Halftimes and intermissions are an important way to make necessary adjustments or fire up the team.  It's impossible to quantify any of that, but you can see the momentum swings between periods.  I'm sure Reaves tries to help out as much as he can.

If this is true then why did the Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins dump Reaves ass after only 58 games after giving up a first round pick?  What about the Rangers?  He stayed there only for 12 games into his second season before they dumped his ass. 
 

If he’s such a great team player in the dressing room and on the bench there would be no reason for two top teams to dump him so quickly. 

[Elias Pettersson]

3 hours ago, The Arrogant Worms said:

Laff's are in 13th place in the NHL.

 

Reeves is doing his thing.

So they are basically worse off with Reaves this year than they were last year without him.