HKSR is Back with the Cap Situation Spreadsheets!

[HKSR]

So today I thought I'd try and connect to CanucksFanForum.com again from my work computer, turns out I have access now!  (previously the work network blocked it due to being a new domain registration). 

 

So love it or hate it, you've got me and my spreadsheets back in the house!

 

Behold my first iteration of the Canucks cap situation for CFF.com!

 

So what does this tell us? 

 

We CAN afford to pay Petey and Hronek big bucks while keeping Garland and not have to disturb the chemistry on this team.  Not only that, we can even afford a bonafide top 4 RHD this off season -- Matt Roy? Lyubushkin? Hakanpaa? Dumba? Klingberg? Miller? Tanev?  2nd pairing RHD playing only 16 to 19min a night.

 

Blueger and Beauvillier can walk into UFA.  No need to use assets to sell off Garland or Myers this year.  What's the point?  We're not winning a Cup this year.  Just keep building towards it.  Our top 6 are great.  Our top pair defence is elite.  Tinker with the bottom 6 and bottom 4 defence to build a strong supporting cast.

Caveat:  If we can move Beauvillier this season for an asset, even better.

 

NEXT SEASON:

Kuzmenko-Petey-Mikheyev

PDG-Miller-Boeser

Joshua-Suter-Garland

Podkolzin-Lafferty-Hoglander

Raty

 

Hughes-Hronek

Cole-Top4RHD

Soucy-Friedman/McWard

 

[Coconuts]

At least your Pettersson projection is realistic 

 

If Hronek continues to mesh with Hughes I think he could command more though imo 

 

Could see the Boeser projection being a bit more or less, but you're probably not far off if the Canucks elect to retain him 

 

Less sure about Kuzmenko if he rides shotgun alongside Pettersson and Pettersson continues to put up 100 point seasons 

 

The rest of it is probably pretty close imo, though I wonder if we'll actually be able to get a top four RD with 4.5M as the cap rises 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Coconuts

[JayDangles]

Great work. I like seeingnit laid out like this.

Two issues that stand out is #1, it's going to impossibly hard to get a RHD for $4.5m.

And #2, we need room to sign a 7th defenseman also. 

[Jess]

I'm a sucker for a large, properly formatted data file.

[HKSR]

9 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

At least your Pettersson projection is realistic 

 

If Hronek continues to mesh with Hughes I think he could command more though imo 

 

Could see the Boeser projection being a bit more or less, but you're probably not far off if the Canucks elect to retain him 

 

Less sure about Kuzmenko if he rides shotgun alongside Pettersson and Pettersson continues to put up 100 point seasons 

 

The rest of it is probably pretty close imo, though I wonder if we'll actually be able to get a top four RD with 4.5M as the cap rises 

 

Not sure how much more Hronek can command.  He's on pace for quite a few points, but has yet to score a goal.  Also not sure how he gets anything more than Hughes (even though Hughes is on a pretty good bargain contract right now).  Unless he gets 60 to 70 points, I think his comparable would be a Damon Severson ++.  Severson at $6.25M++ would be $7M to maybe $7.5M tops.

 

Boeser is hard to project.  He has started out strong, but he may fade back to a 60 point guy. 

 

Kuzmenko even riding shotgun with Petey is still only on a 63 points pace.  His production from last year is likely not sustainable given his shooting %.  He was up in the 27% range last year lol.  I'd say he finishes around 30 goals and 30 assists this year.  $7M AAV would mean he's a 70 point guy, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he performs better in his contract year.

[HKSR]

13 minutes ago, JayDangles said:

Great work. I like seeingnit laid out like this.

Two issues that stand out is #1, it's going to impossibly hard to get a RHD for $4.5m.

And #2, we need room to sign a 7th defenseman also. 

 

Just looking at 2nd pairing defence UFA signings this past off season:

Gudas:  $4M AAV

Cole:  $3M AAV

Graves:  $4.5M AAV

Mayfield:  $3.5M AAV

Klingberg:  $4.15M AAV

Gostisbehere:  $4.13M AAV

Dumba:  $3.9M AAV

 

Pretty obvious we couldn't get a top pairing or top 3 defenceman.  But I think a #4D is pretty plausible. 

[Jess]

Just now, HKSR said:

 

Not sure how much more Hronek can command.  He's on pace for quite a few points, but has yet to score a goal.  Also not sure how he gets anything more than Hughes (even though Hughes is on a pretty good bargain contract right now).  Unless he gets 60 to 70 points, I think his comparable would be a Damon Severson ++.  Severson at $6.25M++ would be $7M to maybe $7.5M tops.

 

Boeser is hard to project.  He has started out strong, but he may fade back to a 60 point guy. 

 

Kuzmenko even riding shotgun with Petey is still only on a 63 points pace.  His production from last year is likely not sustainable given his shooting %.  He was up in the 27% range last year lol.  I'd say he finishes around 30 goals and 30 assists this year.  $7M AAV would mean he's a 70 point guy, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he performs better in his contract year.

 

I'd wager Hronek is a pretty notable step above Severson (which you agree with, it seems). If he scores 65-75 points playing with Hughes, numbers above $8M aren't unrealistic IMO, even if he doesn't score too many goals, but a safer bet is $7-7.5M. As good as he is, it's likely his numbers are fairly inflated by playing with Hughes.

 

I tend to agree with you on Boeser. He started strong, but although he's still playing fairly well, his production has dipped a bit back to normal as of late. I'd guess he'll get around 60 points--probably good for a very similar contract or maybe a small raise. That said, he's not due for another year after this one, so unless he signs an extension right away this summer, we might not have to think too much about that deal for a while yet and maybe even until after the end of 2024-25.

 

Agree on Kuzmenko--he's slowed down this year. I expect him to pick it up a little, but I don't think Kuz will likely be more than a 70-point guy regularly, unless he has a really hot year, where I could see him pushing 90. That doesn't look to be this year though.

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

 

I'd wager Hronek is a pretty notable step above Severson (which you agree with, it seems). If he scores 65-75 points playing with Hughes, numbers above $8M aren't unrealistic IMO, even if he doesn't score too many goals, but a safer bet is $7-7.5M. As good as he is, it's likely his numbers are fairly inflated by playing with Hughes.

 

I tend to agree with you on Boeser. He started strong, but although he's still playing fairly well, his production has dipped a bit back to normal as of late. I'd guess he'll get around 60 points--probably good for a very similar contract or maybe a small raise. That said, he's not due for another year after this one, so unless he signs an extension right away this summer, we might not have to think too much about that deal for a while yet and maybe even until after the end of 2024-25.

 

Agree on Kuzmenko--he's slowed down this year. I expect him to pick it up a little, but I don't think Kuz will likely be more than a 70-point guy regularly, unless he has a really hot year, where I could see him pushing 90. That doesn't look to be this year though.

Looks like you and I are completely on the same page lol.  Cheers!

 

On a side note, if Hronek were to sign a $7.5M AAV deal, he would be tied with Aaron Ekblad as the 6th highest paid RHD in the entire league that is under 30 years old:

1. McAvoy

2. Fox

3. Jones

4. Makar

5. Trouba

T6. Hronek and Ekblad

[Jess]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

Looks like you and I are completely on the same page lol.  Cheers!

 

On a side note, if Hronek were to sign a $7.5M AAV deal, he would be tied with Aaron Ekblad as the 6th highest paid RHD in the entire league that is under 30 years old:

1. McAvoy

2. Fox

3. Jones

4. Makar

5. Trouba

T6. Hronek and Ekblad

 

Yeah, definitely shows the flaw in comparing cap hits without looking at the context of signings. Both the percentage of the cap (instead of raw numbers) as well as where the player was at that time in their careers are both important metrics to consider when comparing cap hits.

[Diamonds]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

 

Just looking at 2nd pairing defence UFA signings this past off season:

Gudas:  $4M AAV

Cole:  $3M AAV

Graves:  $4.5M AAV

Mayfield:  $3.5M AAV

Klingberg:  $4.15M AAV

Gostisbehere:  $4.13M AAV

Dumba:  $3.9M AAV

 

Pretty obvious we couldn't get a top pairing or top 3 defenceman.  But I think a #4D is pretty plausible. 

Of the RHD likely to hit UFA this coming summer, Sean Walker might be our best option and will probably only cost $3.5M-$4M. A guy like Pesce will cost too much and Barrie and Klingberg are too one-dimensional (in the offensive direction).

 

I would love Matt Roy, but I can't see LA letting him get to free agency. Likewise DeMelo would probably also be a great fit but not sure he'll make it. Dumba and Zadorov will probably also be in that $4M-$5M price range (though I can see Dumba asking for more). Definitely a few options to consider.

[coolboarder]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

 

Not sure how much more Hronek can command.  He's on pace for quite a few points, but has yet to score a goal.  Also not sure how he gets anything more than Hughes (even though Hughes is on a pretty good bargain contract right now).  Unless he gets 60 to 70 points, I think his comparable would be a Damon Severson ++.  Severson at $6.25M++ would be $7M to maybe $7.5M tops.

 

Boeser is hard to project.  He has started out strong, but he may fade back to a 60 point guy. 

 

Kuzmenko even riding shotgun with Petey is still only on a 63 points pace.  His production from last year is likely not sustainable given his shooting %.  He was up in the 27% range last year lol.  I'd say he finishes around 30 goals and 30 assists this year.  $7M AAV would mean he's a 70 point guy, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he performs better in his contract year.

I'm willing to bet that Hronek might be willing to sign a discount for a bridge now that he's on a winning team.  We still control his right and maybe buy 1 or 2 years of UFA that will last until Hughes' contract runs out in 3 years at the same time.  We still need to sign Pettersson at a long term.  That is first two order of business then we take care of the rest.   Boeser is harder to project due to his productivity inconsistency, based upon his reliance on other players to get him points  He is entering into prime and might be an important piece.  Kuzmenko might be due for a raise but be willing to stay for as long as his friend Mikheyev's contract last.  I'm looking at least two years from now right after Pettersson is signed then figure out from there.   With attendance down league-wide, we can expect the cap to go a small raise or become stagnant.  If economy get so bad, we can expect the decrease in salary cap from 2 or 3 years, depending on how bad it can get.

[Captkirk888]

So no Blueger next year? We haven’t even seen him play a regular season game…

everything else looks pretty accurate I guess.

[JeremyCuddles]

Hronek at 7mil. Sounds good to me. Ideally I'd like to see it around 6.5m. But I can live with 7. The issue is I don't think we should have him and Hughes together. Ideally in a world where we have 4 top 4 D. Hronek and Hughes are separated. So we have two pairs with high end puck movers. And cause I think having two dudes 6' and shorter might cause more issues in the playoffs than it does in the regular season. But that's a bridge to cross another day.

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, JeremyCuddles said:

Hronek at 7mil. Sounds good to me. Ideally I'd like to see it around 6.5m. But I can live with 7. The issue is I don't think we should have him and Hughes together. Ideally in a world where we have 4 top 4 D. Hronek and Hughes are separated. So we have two pairs with high end puck movers. And cause I think having two dudes 6' and shorter might cause more issues in the playoffs than it does in the regular season. But that's a bridge to cross another day.

Devon Toews 6'1"

Cale Makar 5'11"

 

Not sure if Hronek being 1" shorter than Toews makes THAT much of a difference lol

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, Captkirk888 said:

So no Blueger next year? We haven’t even seen him play a regular season game…

everything else looks pretty accurate I guess.

If Blueger is an upgrade on Lafferty or Suter then sure.  But I dunno, I really like what Lafferty brings, and Suter has been unsung with his defensive play.

[Coconuts]

4 hours ago, HKSR said:

 

Not sure how much more Hronek can command.  He's on pace for quite a few points, but has yet to score a goal.  Also not sure how he gets anything more than Hughes (even though Hughes is on a pretty good bargain contract right now).  Unless he gets 60 to 70 points, I think his comparable would be a Damon Severson ++.  Severson at $6.25M++ would be $7M to maybe $7.5M tops.

 

Boeser is hard to project.  He has started out strong, but he may fade back to a 60 point guy. 

 

Kuzmenko even riding shotgun with Petey is still only on a 63 points pace.  His production from last year is likely not sustainable given his shooting %.  He was up in the 27% range last year lol.  I'd say he finishes around 30 goals and 30 assists this year.  $7M AAV would mean he's a 70 point guy, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he performs better in his contract year.

 

I could see Hronek being closer to 8M if he piles up points but at the very least I'd be expecting more than 7M if he keeps it up. 7.5, 7.75, it's anyone's guess. One can potentially point to him as being a benefactor of Hughes, but if Hronek's play compliments Hughes and allows him to play at an elite level I could see a counterargument being made as well. 

 

Severson is 29 , and while his offensive production has been respectable in the past he still topped out at 46 points in 80 games as a career high. https://www.capfriendly.com/players/damon-severson

 

Hronek's had back to back 38 point seasons on a Detroit club that's had limited success. He's already up to 8 points. He'll also be 26 tomorrow, so there's a bit of an age gap too. At the very least I'd probably put Hronek in a higher bracket offensively, he's well on his way to setting a new career high at this point in the season. https://www.capfriendly.com/players/filip-hronek

 

Less sure about Boeser, guess we'll see how the season goes. He's an easy guy to root for though. 

 

I agree on Kuzmenko, his shooting percentage was never going to be sustainable. We'll see how he produces, but if he plays anywhere near a ppg pace I wouldn't be surprised to see him eat up more of any future cap increases. 

[wai_lai416]

Ppl shouldn’t be projecting hroneks contract based on ppl that signed their contract years ago.. nor should they be basing contract on other players on the team. Because Hughes is on a steal therefore no defenseman should make more than him. He prolly be worth 6.5-7 prior to the cap going up. After the cap prolly 7.5-8. .. if we are basing it on other peoples contract in this team then EP shouldn’t make 4-4.5 more than miller.

 

hronek being a top 4 RD if he hits open market I’m sure there will be a few times lining up with 8mil. If the team goes the lowball route hronek goes the qualifying offer. Could get interesting I predict 7.5mil but the team prolly goes the 6-6.5mil

[cripplereh]

I really thinking his year we will get that top 4 RHD or try to.

 

Next year Hirose and McWard will join the D as Myers and Cole will be gone.Beau and a trade is involving Garland or Brock as his play he might get us a deal we can't say no to and I would take it.

[IBatch]

13 hours ago, HKSR said:

 

Just looking at 2nd pairing defence UFA signings this past off season:

Gudas:  $4M AAV

Cole:  $3M AAV

Graves:  $4.5M AAV

Mayfield:  $3.5M AAV

Klingberg:  $4.15M AAV

Gostisbehere:  $4.13M AAV

Dumba:  $3.9M AAV

 

Pretty obvious we couldn't get a top pairing or top 3 defenceman.  But I think a #4D is pretty plausible. 

Not really what this team needs though ... it needs a higher grade second pairing guy, who's younger and can grow with the team.     Some of these guys are what Del Zotto was when he signed with us.  Cole is 34...might get another year out of him.  

 

Still think we need to add a young RFA to help bridge the gap while we wait for Willander.   He's, if everything works out, probably 4 years away from top four.   2 years before NHL.   Min.   That's Makar level not the norm.  And 2 to work his way up and learn the job.    

 

Don't know about you, but sure don't want UFAs filling two spots on our second pairing.   Maybe we luck out.   Don't expect every year we find a Cole or a Schenn.  

 

Edit:  Bear might be the guy...Hard to say, but think he's more of a bottom pairing player on a deep team.   QHs is one cushy job.    Nothing wrong with giving him a go though.   At the very least it will help our playoff push.    We don't know how this team will deal with adversity yet.   Nobody is injured right now if consequence (Brisbois ... who else?). 

Edited November 2, 2023 by IBatch

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, cripplereh said:

I really thinking his year we will get that top 4 RHD or try to.

 

Next year Hirose and McWard will join the D as Myers and Cole will be gone.Beau and a trade is involving Garland or Brock as his play he might get us a deal we can't say no to and I would take it.

Don't be surprised to see Myers and Cole back.   We found a top pairing RHD last year.   That's been done.   What we need now is another top four D (LHD or RHD) like Edler post 30, or Hamhuis or Bieksa to manage the second pairing and a guy like Cole.   To bridge the gap until Willander is ready.   Won't be cheap.  As much as a first, second and a prospect (for a guy who's already close at 22-24), or a UFA overpayment. 

 

Both Myers and Cole need to be replaced.   Maybe Brisbois comes in and Soucy moves up.   But don't think we've got anything else in the pool or AHL ready for top four do you?   Figure we could get both Cole and Myers back for 5-6 ... they already know the system.   And i'm with that group who thinks Myers on the 3rd pairing is just fine.    Cole is a bandaid stop gap, but is working out, and might as well sign him for two years.   Hronek will want to stay.  QHs wingman is a cushy job.   Figure he signs a 5-8 year deal with us.   

 

This leaves exactly one spot while we wait for Willander.   Those guys you mentioned are depth injury and that's about it (Hirose and McWard).   Aside from Brisbois, who like the club, feel he's ready for a NHL shot.  

Edited November 2, 2023 by IBatch

[HKSR]

4 hours ago, IBatch said:

Not really what this team needs though ... it needs a higher grade second pairing guy, who's younger and can grow with the team.     Some of these guys are what Del Zotto was when he signed with us.  Cole is 34...might get another year out of him.  

 

Still think we need to add a young RFA to help bridge the gap while we wait for Willander.   He's, if everything works out, probably 4 years away from top four.   2 years before NHL.   Min.   That's Makar level not the norm.  And 2 to work his way up and learn the job.    

 

Don't know about you, but sure don't want UFAs filling two spots on our second pairing.   Maybe we luck out.   Don't expect every year we find a Cole or a Schenn.  

 

Edit:  Bear might be the guy...Hard to say, but think he's more of a bottom pairing player on a deep team.   QHs is one cushy job.    Nothing wrong with giving him a go though.   At the very least it will help our playoff push.    We don't know how this team will deal with adversity yet.   Nobody is injured right now if consequence (Brisbois ... who else?). 

Not sure we need that high grade 2nd pairing guy.  Hughes and Hronek play over 24min a night.  The 2nd pair probably puts in 17 to 20min a night.  That's a $4 to $5M defenceman in my mind.  A Gudas, or Graves, or Cole, or Mayfield could all bridge the gap while we wait for Willander or Mcward to make their way up to the big leagues. 

 

Alternatively, we go and spend more on one side of the 2nd pair (Hanifin, Pesce, Skjei) and find a cheaper partner.  We're not locked into Cole, so it gives us some flexibility. 

 

Who knows, maybe Soucy establishes himself this season and becomes a 2nd pair LHD in place of Cole.  Then we go and sign Pesce to round out the 2nd pair. 

 

Bottomline, we don't necessarily need to throw assets away to shore up the 2nd pair with a high end, and young top 4D.  They are expensive, and if we're bridging the time gap for Willander, then it makes no sense to give up assets for a young stud 2nd pairing guy for only a few years of service.  Much rather sign a cheaper UFA for 3 years (ie. the type of guys I mentioned above).

[Gawdzukes]

5 hours ago, IBatch said:

Not really what this team needs though ... it needs a higher grade second pairing guy, who's younger and can grow with the team.     Some of these guys are what Del Zotto was when he signed with us.  Cole is 34...might get another year out of him.  

 

Still think we need to add a young RFA to help bridge the gap while we wait for Willander.   He's, if everything works out, probably 4 years away from top four.   2 years before NHL.   Min.   That's Makar level not the norm.  And 2 to work his way up and learn the job.    

 

Don't know about you, but sure don't want UFAs filling two spots on our second pairing.   Maybe we luck out.   Don't expect every year we find a Cole or a Schenn.  

 

Edit:  Bear might be the guy...Hard to say, but think he's more of a bottom pairing player on a deep team.   QHs is one cushy job.    Nothing wrong with giving him a go though.   At the very least it will help our playoff push.    We don't know how this team will deal with adversity yet.   Nobody is injured right now if consequence (Brisbois ... who else?). 

 

On a deep team Bear might be on the bench like he was he was in Carolina. I agree we're probably looking for a youngish player for the RD unless Hronek stays with QH fulltime. Need the flexibility for both. As it stands we probably need two RD for next year. Not going to be easy ... I would assume that 1st rounder will be in play.

[HKSR]

13 hours ago, Coconuts said:

 

I could see Hronek being closer to 8M if he piles up points but at the very least I'd be expecting more than 7M if he keeps it up. 7.5, 7.75, it's anyone's guess. One can potentially point to him as being a benefactor of Hughes, but if Hronek's play compliments Hughes and allows him to play at an elite level I could see a counterargument being made as well. 

 

Severson is 29 , and while his offensive production has been respectable in the past he still topped out at 46 points in 80 games as a career high. https://www.capfriendly.com/players/damon-severson

 

Hronek's had back to back 38 point seasons on a Detroit club that's had limited success. He's already up to 8 points. He'll also be 26 tomorrow, so there's a bit of an age gap too. At the very least I'd probably put Hronek in a higher bracket offensively, he's well on his way to setting a new career high at this point in the season. https://www.capfriendly.com/players/filip-hronek

 

Less sure about Boeser, guess we'll see how the season goes. He's an easy guy to root for though. 

 

I agree on Kuzmenko, his shooting percentage was never going to be sustainable. We'll see how he produces, but if he plays anywhere near a ppg pace I wouldn't be surprised to see him eat up more of any future cap increases. 

Severson is only at 6.25M, so I expect Hronek to be more than that because of production, age, etc.  $750k to $1.25M more is not unrealistic.  That puts Hronek at $7M to $7.5M.

It wouldn't surprise me if Hronek edges closer to $8M, but it'd be hard to justify that when Quinn Hughes signed only 2 years ago for less than $8M at a similar league wide upper cap limit.

 

Agreed with Boeser.  I think we can all agree that he is hard to predict.  My gut tells me he continues to be a 60 point guy.

 

Overall I think Kuzmenko is also a 60 point guy, but what I could see is him getting hot somewhere this season and putting up an additional 10 points to push him into the 70+ point range -- hence my $7M AAV prediction.

[cripplereh]

10 hours ago, IBatch said:

Don't be surprised to see Myers and Cole back.   We found a top pairing RHD last year.   That's been done.   What we need now is another top four D (LHD or RHD) like Edler post 30, or Hamhuis or Bieksa to manage the second pairing and a guy like Cole.   To bridge the gap until Willander is ready.   Won't be cheap.  As much as a first, second and a prospect (for a guy who's already close at 22-24), or a UFA overpayment. 

 

Both Myers and Cole need to be replaced.   Maybe Brisbois comes in and Soucy moves up.   But don't think we've got anything else in the pool or AHL ready for top four do you?   Figure we could get both Cole and Myers back for 5-6 ... they already know the system.   And i'm with that group who thinks Myers on the 3rd pairing is just fine.    Cole is a bandaid stop gap, but is working out, and might as well sign him for two years.   Hronek will want to stay.  QHs wingman is a cushy job.   Figure he signs a 5-8 year deal with us.   

 

This leaves exactly one spot while we wait for Willander.   Those guys you mentioned are depth injury and that's about it (Hirose and McWard).   Aside from Brisbois, who like the club, feel he's ready for a NHL shot.  

I don't know maybe Cole comes back but we have to give both Hirose and McWard a shot.

 

Hirose hasn't looked out of place at all.And McWard looked better then most preseason.

 

Those two should get a shot before wasting money and spot on others.

 

I really think we are one RHD away from having a great D.

 

After that one more good forward fir the third line and we should be set.