Canucks cup window, how many years?

[Canucks_fo_life]

Obviously this season has shown us that when our core players were FINALLY surrounded by good support players that this team was destined for great things.

 

Petterson is 25, Hughes is 24, and  Boeser is 26, all are in their prime/getting better and still relatively young.

 

Now you look at JT Miller who is 30, and Thatcher Demko is 28, these guys are a bit older but one wonders, how many more good years could these 2 have left? 

 

IMO you have to try to win the cup in these next 3 seasons, JT Miller is 30 and is playing at an unbelievable level right now, and the past 2 seasons he did too. I would hate for them to waste his better years before things start fading, what will he be like at 33? 34? The time is now to go for it, thoughts? 

[Elias Pettersson]

Petey and Miller are our Sedins, so we go as they go.  So our window is probably 4-5 years max at the moment.  If Lekkerimaki, Willander, D-Petey and Podkolzin all become star players and if Allvin can make some more great draft picks and great trades then he may be able to extend that window, especially if they extend Demko and he plays with us until retirement. 

[Kevin Biestra]

It's time to go for it, agreed.  I think the Canucks right now are kind of like the 1992 or 1993 Canucks...one of the best regular season teams in the league and no good reason they shouldn't at least get to round two.  JT Miller seems to have that Orland Kurtenbach gene.  Orland was a spare part on his previous teams, then joined the Canucks at about age 34.  He immediately went from a previous peak of 37 points to 53 and then 61 as a Canuck.  In his mid-30s.  Some guys just need the opportunity.  Quinn Hughes also seems to have a bit of Orland in him...put the C on his jersey and then all of a sudden...holy cow.

 

Tough to say with JT though.  He could be worn out by 32 like Smyl.  He could still be one of the best in the league at 40 like Ray Bourque.  Or he could just taper his way down year after year from 32 to 39 like Jeremy Roenick.  I think the older guys you mentioned...JT and Demko...are potentially replaceable in free agency etc. as time does its thing on them whereas the younger guys will still have it for some time to come.

 

 

Edited January 10 by Kevin Biestra

[CaptainCanuck12]

Many, many!

[wai_lai416]

53 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Petey and Miller are our Sedins, so we go as they go.  So our window is probably 4-5 years max at the moment.  If Lekkerimaki, Willander, D-Petey and Podkolzin all become star players and if Allvin can make some more great draft picks and great trades then he may be able to extend that window, especially if they extend Demko and he plays with us until retirement. 

i think it really depends on demko.. unless silov becomes the next demko level goalie we go as far as goaltending goes.. and history say most goalies don't stay elite past 30-31.. there are exceptions of coz.. but most of those exceptions are hall of famers iirc so might not even be 4-5 years.. might really be just 3 years.. look at markstrom.. he really only had 1 good year since his age 30+ seasons.. and that was behind a sutter defence that tend to make goalie way better than what they are.. ie quick

[PureQuickness]

What we are seeing is the importance of drafting/development, as well as excellent trades. Without meaning to beat on a dead horse, Gillis had a lot of success because of his pieces that he inherited from his predecessors, in addition to the moves (specifically pro scouting) that he made (i.e supplementing the core with his pro scouting). We are potentially seeing a copy of that situation, but in this case, it was Benning (and his regime) who left behind pieces like Pettersson, Hughes, Demko, JT Miller, and so forth.

 

There's a good reason Gillis was fired by the end of his tenure. By the time of his departure, our prospect pool was absolutely barren. Poor draft picks (lots of traded picks) and absolutely nothing to show with regards to the futures. Similar to that, Benning left behind a lot of dead cap as a result of bad trades.

 

What we have to learn from the Gillis and Benning regimes: we should not sell the farm to sell playoff tickets. We all remember Gillis' contributions that brought us tons of playoff successes. However, they all came at a cost. A really, really expensive one.

 

If we can keep drafting/developing, Allvin and company will be remembered for steering the club into the sunset. This team is so incredibly promising, though it's not without its flaws. We finally see players (regardless if they were drafted from us or not) working COLLECTIVELY to be a lethal threat. I'm almost gonna say that the pain that we experienced the past few years has almost been worth it.

 

I've had serious doubts about Allvin, but I owe him an apology at this point. He could potentially do better than Gillis with constructing this team. For starters, the draft picks so far are SO MUCH better than the crap that Gillis picked. IF these players pan out, we are in for a TREAT.

Edited January 10 by PureQuickness

[CanuckMan]

The next 3-4 for sure and 5 years max. After that JT will most likely be slowing down. Demko may or may not be able to maintain his current level of play. 
Canucks need to make a move this year. I don’t care about our first round pick. With the way our position in the standings is going to be we will be looking at a low pick anyways. Trade the pick for a rental that helps us go deep in the playoffs. Tired of 10+ years of garbage/mediocre hockey.

[IBatch]

Our window is as long as EP and QHs are signed.   EP 26-34 would be awesome.   QHs until he's 36 or so is fine too. At some point the team will need to rebuild.   Virtually all of Millers current contract is a window.     

 

Do see us possibly having to re-tool for a couple years,  depending on how things play out with Demko/QHs and JT Miller.  And that we should be able to create two completely different groups of support players as well a younger core around EP and QHs while they are in their 30's, much like what LA has done around Quick, Kopitar and Doughty.    Or look at Dallas, Benn and Seguin, they are in their second window, two completely different cores.  

 

Core:  Hronek, QHs, Demko, JT Miller, EP (and maybe Brock becomes our Patrick Sharp, goes from support to core).    Later Willander  ? ? YTD. 

 

EP signing a long term or medium term contract should help give us an idea.   We are having our peak cap window right now.   While most of our guys are still RFA's.    One of Brock or Kuzmneko is as good as gone, we won't be able to afford both, and will need to rely on ELC support throughout. 

 

 

How wide that window is, truly depends on how much cap our best players take up.   Going up 50-60% (EPs),  that cap has to come from somewhere else.     It wouldn't take much to Parise and Suter ourselves, or more like Kane and Toews ourselves.   Their team was done for as soon as that ink dried, hogged way too much, but at least earned it (3 cups).    MIN and CHI had some playoffs.      Locking up our core to reasonable cap hits, is important.   Sure managed that with Miller.    It's not impossible to win while your core is mostly on UFA deals - TB and Vegas managed fine (yes no state tax helped).     PIT and WSH, had to wait years for cap to go up enough for their deals to be more reasonable.   

 

One thing I do like, is our deals are staggered.   It gives management flexibility. 

Edited January 10 by IBatch

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

It's time to go for it, agreed.  I think the Canucks right now are kind of like the 1992 or 1993 Canucks...one of the best regular season teams in the league and no good reason they shouldn't at least get to round two.  JT Miller seems to have that Orland Kurtenbach gene.  Orland was a spare part on his previous teams, then joined the Canucks at about age 34.  He immediately went from a previous peak of 37 points to 53 and then 61 as a Canuck.  In his mid-30s.  Some guys just need the opportunity.  Quinn Hughes also seems to have a bit of Orland in him...put the C on his jersey and then all of a sudden...holy cow.

 

Tough to say with JT though.  He could be worn out by 32 like Smyl.  He could still be one of the best in the league at 40 like Ray Bourque.  Or he could just taper his way down year after year from 32 to 39 like Jeremy Roenick.  I think the older guys you mentioned...JT and Demko...are potentially replaceable in free agency etc. as time does its thing on them whereas the younger guys will still have it for some time to come.

 

 

Yes it's time to go for it.   This year and the following season.   For sure Kuzmenko and our first rounder should be in play.    Our peak window, with this existing core is now.   It's possible if we can extend Demko (and he doesn't go the way Schneider went) and QHs later, that our window extends to part of this core, with part of one coming up later.    But right now, this year and next year's OEL penalty is palatable.    And with some careful trades and signings, we could see a cup parade or at least a significant run.    100% agree this team has early 90's vibes.   Which bodes well for us, those teams were better in the post season than the regular one. 

[Canuckleheads Fan]

It depends on the development of our top prospects. We are going to lose some of our bargain contracts after this year, we have seven UFAs playing key rolls on this team, Blueger, Joshua, Lafferty, Cole, Myers, Zadorov and Desmith. Plus two critical RFAs, Petey and Hronek. We won't be able to keep them all, and will have to find other bargain contracts to replace them who can hopefully gel with the core and quickly master Tocchet Hockey. I suspect Joshua, Blueger, and Zadorov are pricing themselves off the team. Hopefully some Abby guys like Pods, Raty, and Selovs are ready to make the jump. They'll hopefully be able to resign Cole and Myers for bargain money. Plus does Petey resign? If Petey's gone, then our window closes with his departure. If PA makes a trade for a rental how much do we pay, and how much club control will we get. Will we have to dump Garland's contract to fit that rental under the cap. What does that do to the chemistry? This team looks damned good, the Lotto Line I think is a long-term fix for Petey, JT, and Brock's recent doldrums. If the other three lines continue to play their rolls, leave 649 together, and see if Suter can gel with Kuzy and Mik to provide more secondary scoring. Ride this horse, because I think we're onto something special here. I would be in favor of moving draft picks for a top six forward or a 2C but now do we fit them under the cap? We would likely be destroying what has been our most consistent line if we have to move Garland and ruining the team chemistry.

[DrJockitch]

Sometimes a group catches lightning in a bottle and you have to adjust your plans. I think atm the approach is we have a 2 year mini-window including this year. That is why most contracts have been so short. 
After next year we will have Hronek and EP’s massive deals and OEL’s ballooning payments so this will necessitate a shift to youth and bringing in Lek, Willander/EP 2.0/Podz as cheap cost controlled players to fill in around them, so likely a bit of a step back at that time but will open another window in 3-4 years if JT’s game is still there. 

[Bob Long]

31 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

Sometimes a group catches lightning in a bottle and you have to adjust your plans. I think atm the approach is we have a 2 year mini-window including this year. That is why most contracts have been so short. 
After next year we will have Hronek and EP’s massive deals and OEL’s ballooning payments so this will necessitate a shift to youth and bringing in Lek, Willander/EP 2.0/Podz as cheap cost controlled players to fill in around them, so likely a bit of a step back at that time but will open another window in 3-4 years if JT’s game is still there. 

 

^ this. It really depends on Demko imo.

[nux_win]

7 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

It's time to go for it, agreed.  I think the Canucks right now are kind of like the 1992 or 1993 Canucks...one of the best regular season teams in the league and no good reason they shouldn't at least get to round two.  JT Miller seems to have that Orland Kurtenbach gene.  Orland was a spare part on his previous teams, then joined the Canucks at about age 34.  He immediately went from a previous peak of 37 points to 53 and then 61 as a Canuck.  In his mid-30s.  Some guys just need the opportunity.  Quinn Hughes also seems to have a bit of Orland in him...put the C on his jersey and then all of a sudden...holy cow.

 

Tough to say with JT though.  He could be worn out by 32 like Smyl.  He could still be one of the best in the league at 40 like Ray Bourque.  Or he could just taper his way down year after year from 32 to 39 like Jeremy Roenick.  I think the older guys you mentioned...JT and Demko...are potentially replaceable in free agency etc. as time does its thing on them whereas the younger guys will still have it for some time to come.

 

 

Hey, cool that you're giving props to Orland.  He doesn't get much praise on Canucks forums.  He was a great Canuck.  I've been following the Canucks since the first season.  Maybe this is the year.  And if not this year, I think our window (not that I like that metaphor) will be open for some time.  We've got some good things coming in the pipeline and our stars are relatively young.  Go Canucks Go!

[Kevin Biestra]

6 minutes ago, nux_win said:

Hey, cool that you're giving props to Orland.  He doesn't get much praise on Canucks forums.  He was a great Canuck.  I've been following the Canucks since the first season.  Maybe this is the year.  And if not this year, I think our window (not that I like that metaphor) will be open for some time.  We've got some good things coming in the pipeline and our stars are relatively young.  Go Canucks Go!

 

Heh at least Orland is up there in the ROH which is good to see.  I've been campaigning for Boudrias, Brodeur and Tiger to join him for years.

 

Edited January 10 by Kevin Biestra

[Ohthehumanity]

4 hours ago, IBatch said:

Yes it's time to go for it.   This year and the following season.   For sure Kuzmenko and our first rounder should be in play.    Our peak window, with this existing core is now.   It's possible if we can extend Demko (and he doesn't go the way Schneider went) and QHs later, that our window extends to part of this core, with part of one coming up later.    But right now, this year and next year's OEL penalty is palatable.    And with some careful trades and signings, we could see a cup parade or at least a significant run.    100% agree this team has early 90's vibes.   Which bodes well for us, those teams were better in the post season than the regular one. 

We need another Jeff Brown trade to run for this. Maybe pick up a Hedican too.

[SV.]

Well, there's an opportunity this year (with the right TDL additions).  It gets more difficult after this season, however.

Contract extensions and dead cap will complicate things, but that's tomorrow's problem 

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, nux_win said:

Hey, cool that you're giving props to Orland.  He doesn't get much praise on Canucks forums.  He was a great Canuck.  I've been following the Canucks since the first season.  Maybe this is the year.  And if not this year, I think our window (not that I like that metaphor) will be open for some time.  We've got some good things coming in the pipeline and our stars are relatively young.  Go Canucks Go!

That metaphor is odd.   Who wants their window opened more than a crack in Canada?  Winters are cold, summers are hot and buggy.    And the only time the window got opened when I was a kid, was to either let someone in at night, but more likely leave the house and go do bad things.     For the most part, leaving the window open wasn't a good idea, you'd get caught or major shit for, well the hydro bill, or because it was buggy.   Cracked was fine that's it.    Or rain gets in too. 

 

Keeping your window open, I suppose, is a metaphor to let the good times roll? 

[Nucker67]

This is the year. Tiny window.

 

After this season:

 

- some players will leave (Myers, Cole, Friedman and more)

- some will get hefty raises (Pettersson, Blueger, Joshua, Lafferty, Hronek, Zadorov, DeSmith)

- the OEL penalty ramps up ($2,346,667)

 

Right now they have a great mix of players to do some damage. 

 

[spook007]

Likely 2 windows... 

First window this year and next...

OEL max penalty...2025/2026 and 2026/2027

Second window 2027/2028 and a few years after that, depending on the length of Peteys and Hughes contract extensions. 

 

For the second window, Miller will likely have slowed down, and be no more than a second/third line centre (who knows), but Lekkerimaki and Villander will be on the team, maybe on ELCs maybe second contracts. There are more players in pipeline that may be able to give cheap support at that time.

 

But don't wait and hope for it to happen.... strike while the iron is hot.... Go for it.

[IBatch]

2 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Likely 2 windows... 

First window this year and next...

OEL max penalty...2025/2026 and 2026/2027

Second window 2027/2028 and a few years after that, depending on the length of Peteys and Hughes contract extensions. 

 

For the second window, Miller will likely have slowed down, and be no more than a second/third line centre (who knows), but Lekkerimaki and Villander will be on the team, maybe on ELCs maybe second contracts. There are more players in pipeline that may be able to give cheap support at that time.

 

But don't wait and hope for it to happen.... strike while the iron is hot.... Go for it.

Yes they should be supporting as they go.   It's not easy, things change, this team isn't overachieving anymore.   It looks like the real deal.   

[DSVII]

This iteration is probably two years to Demko's contract extension and OEL's $4 mil cap hit.

 

Now, if one of Silovs, Lekkerimaki, D Petey, Willander, Brzustewicz can make the jump in the next two years and be 1G/Top 6/Top 4 worthy. That efficiency can make up for the OEL dead cap of $4 mil and the window can be extended.

 

Shows the importance of drafting and developing a pipeline on the farm.

 

 

Edited January 10 by DSVII

[nux_win]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

That metaphor is odd.   Who wants their window opened more than a crack in Canada?  Winters are cold, summers are hot and buggy.    And the only time the window got opened when I was a kid, was to either let someone in at night, but more likely leave the house and go do bad things.     For the most part, leaving the window open wasn't a good idea, you'd get caught or major shit for, well the hydro bill, or because it was buggy.   Cracked was fine that's it.    Or rain gets in too. 

 

Keeping your window open, I suppose, is a metaphor to let the good times roll? 

It's going to be -34 tonight where I live.  And I'm crazy enough to leave the widow in my bedroom open a few inches.  Yup, I like sleeping below zero.  -34 is a bit much but I don't get to choose.

 

Anyway, the window metaphor implies that only certain teams have any chance of winning (i.e. if their window is "open") but, as mentioned, I don't really like that metaphor.  It's too black and white.  And it gets leaned on way too heavily.  It's as if people can't talk about hockey without mentioning a "window".  A few years ago the St. Louis Blues proved that you can win a cup with your window closed.  GCG!

[kilgore]

MONTHS BABY, MONTHS!!

[HKSR]

15 hours ago, Canucks_fo_life said:

Obviously this season has shown us that when our core players were FINALLY surrounded by good support players that this team was destined for great things.

 

Petterson is 25, Hughes is 24, and  Boeser is 26, all are in their prime/getting better and still relatively young.

 

Now you look at JT Miller who is 30, and Thatcher Demko is 28, these guys are a bit older but one wonders, how many more good years could these 2 have left? 

 

IMO you have to try to win the cup in these next 3 seasons, JT Miller is 30 and is playing at an unbelievable level right now, and the past 2 seasons he did too. I would hate for them to waste his better years before things start fading, what will he be like at 33? 34? The time is now to go for it, thoughts? 

 

14 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Petey and Miller are our Sedins, so we go as they go.  So our window is probably 4-5 years max at the moment.  If Lekkerimaki, Willander, D-Petey and Podkolzin all become star players and if Allvin can make some more great draft picks and great trades then he may be able to extend that window, especially if they extend Demko and he plays with us until retirement. 

IMO, THIS window is open for 3 to 4 years while Quinn is on his super value contract.  He is basically our Nathan Mackinnon when it comes to value.

Miller probably has a few high-end years left in him as well.

Demko is also on a very good deal, but it is up in 3 years, so he will see a significant increase.

 

Petey will no longer be a value contract by next season as he will also get a significant increase.  Same with Hronek.

 

So this window will be 3 to 4 years with Quinn, Miller, and Demko providing excellent value.

 

The next window (if there is one) will depend on our current young guns.  Once Quinn and Demko have their new deals, we need to hope Willander and Lekkerimaki come in and provide excellent value as a top 4 D and top 6 F to offset those increases.  I suspect we see 1 or 2 of Brock, Kuz, and Mik to be gone by then.

[cripplereh]

Only time will tell as we haven't made the playoffs yet so don't know how we will do.

 

Hate to say it but might be a one year thing but doubt it as we seem to be just awesome.